So, What Happens From Here?
The 2024 and 2025 seasons were the greatest consecutive seasons in Illinois program history. 19 wins, Citrus Bowl Champions, Music Bowl Champions, and momentum at an all-time high Illinois. Coming into this season, Illinois underwent many changes, but still Illinois Football stock was soaring. All Illinois needed to keep this momentum flowing was reach a bowl game. Five games into the season, that goal seems impossible. Illinois might be favored in only one game the rest of the season. If I set the O/U on 3.5 wins this season, I think I would lean on the under.
The most discouraging part is that I thought Bielema's floor was 5-7, but this team looks on track to disprove that. There have been disappointing losses in the Bielema era, but not a single one comes close to this one against Purdue. Some losses may have had a bigger impact on the season's final outcome. 2022 Purdue and 2024 Minnesota immediately come to mind. Every disappointing loss up to this point has not made people question what the future of the entire program looks like, though. That's what separates this one from the rest. The scoreboard didn't even really do the game justice. Purdue was fired up from the kick and manhandled Illinois like they were a MAC team for 60 minutes. There was not a single second after Ethan Moczulski's missed field in the first quarter where I thought Illinois was going to win the game.
Purdue came in on Saturday as losers in 19 straight Big Ten games, losers in 23 straight Power Four games, and the prototypical basement dweller in the college football world. That can only make me wonder if Illinois is heading back to that place where they belonged for much of the 2010s. It has been a long time since we have seen truly awful football in Champaign. The 2021 and 2023 teams were a couple of plays away from going bowling. Saturday afternoon looked like a product that we haven't seen since the Lovie Smith and Tim Beckman years.
Illinois still has 7 games to play, but I would be lying to suggest that this season does not feel like a lost cause. Illinois could not afford to drop home games to Duke and Purdue if they wanted to reach a bowl. Illinois is somehow currently favored on the road against Michigan State next week. Illinois will also maybe be favored against Maryland on the road. Every other game Illinois will be 7+ point underdogs. Oregon was already penciled in as a loss heading into the season, so that is no surprise. Nebraska, UCLA, and Northwestern were all considered tossups, but they have all taken massive leaps this season. Iowa is Iowa. There are not 4 wins left on this schedule. Unless Illinois wins both tossups and upsets two more teams, Illinois' bowl chances were flattened by Purdue, of all teams, last Saturday.
Illinois' season was over before it even began if we are being completely honest. The 2026 offseason will go down as the biggest blemish in the Bret Bielema era. Waiting too long to get rid of Aaron Henry created a long chain of dominos that leads us to here today wondering if we just saw the collapse of Illinois Football in real time.
Illinois does not have the spending luxury of the upper echelon of the Big Ten, but that cannot excuse what this offseason looked like. This offseason was a complete failure and may genuinely set the program back years.
The Athletic came out with a really interesting report the other week. In it, they estimated where every Power Four team stands in terms of their NIL spending. (Does your college football roster cost $8M or $50M? Here's our report on 68 teams - The Athletic)
Here is the Big Ten Picture:
Yes, Illinois is at the bottom, but so are teams like Minnesota and Iowa. Those programs are locks to make a bowl game every single year. So why can't Illinois do the same?
Illinois has been successful recruiting, but you have to wonder how in the world will they retain anyone? Those recruits presumably came here because they saw what they thought was a sustained winning program. If Illinois goes 3-9 or 4-8 and these guys aren't even on the field, they're probably going to transfer out in this day and age. I mean just looking ahead at next year, nearly all of the Illini's impact players are out of eligibility after this season.
There is going to be even more change coming in next year than there was this season and in the 2023 season. Illinois has been unsuccessful in years with change, so why should anyone feel confident it will be corrected this offseason.
This isn't even talking about the possibility of Barry Lunney leaving for a better OC job somewhere else. Yes, I know Illinois' offense as awful on Saturday, but Lunney is still a great offensive coordinator. At some point Lunney will take a better job, so why would he not do it now?
This season has been a massive reality check for Illinois. Did everyone inside the Smith Center believe reaching a bowl game had become a given after three bowl seasons in four years? How do you enter this season without paying multiple players on the defensive front and instead settle for what has looked like a MAC-level front six? How do you not even look competitive against Purdue at home, in front of a good Homecoming crowd?
Those are questions that deserve answers. Illinois has Michigan State next week, and the Spartans' season has also been completely derailed through five games. They have the worst offense in the Big Ten by a wide margin. If Illinois wants to salvage anything from this season, it needs to win Saturday. Not because beating Michigan State will suddenly save the season. It won't. But a win would at least allow Illinois to enter the bye week with something positive to build on.
The 2024 and 2025 seasons created expectations for what Illinois football was. Five games into 2026, those expectations are being replaced by a much more uncomfortable question: Was the success of the last two seasons the peak of the Bielema era?
The start of the 2026 season, encapsulated by Saturday's performance against Purdue, has given us a reason to seriously ask that question.
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