B1G flop, vibe check ahead of Selection Sunday

One of the most common sayings you will hear in college basketball is, "this team is playing their best basketball at the right time." It's go time for all teams in America. The postseason is here, and there is no more time for learning opportunities. Teams are no longer guaranteed games. They must earn an extra 40 minutes every time they step on the floor. Illinois is not playing their best basketball at this time. The Illini's time in the Windy City was a short one with Wisconsin snatching the Illini's hopes again. Illinois has looked like a shell of the team that was 20-3 and coming off a 40-point victory against Northwestern. Since that game, Illinois is 4-5 and have not beaten a single team that will be in the tournament field. The maddening part is that every game lost seems to come back to the same problems.

The biggest discourse that is going around the internet regarding Illinois is centering around the close game struggles. While it is a valid concern, I am in the camp that sometimes late game situations are just luck. It was lucky that John Blackwell got a phantom foul call on Friday. Skill is definitely involved, but some things are not in a team's control. The more you win close games, you are likely to be more clutch, but I still think luck in involved in some way. The thing I think people are not talking about enough is the underlying cause of these late game struggles. The reason Illinois is keeps playing in these close games down to the wire is because they can't put a team away when they have them on the ropes. The opponent is always playing loose with all the momentum with them while Illinois always plays tight. It's like watching a golfer 3-putt for bogey because their first putt was so conservative that they left themselves a 6-foot test for par. Illinois keeps missing that par putt.

Of the Illini's last 5 losses, 4 have come in overtime. Other than Michigan just asserting their dominance, every game Illinois has had a good chance of winning. First, Illinois led Michigan State by 9 in the second half. This wasn't nearly as bad of a collapse like the others, but Illinois was in firm control of this game. Illinois had a chance to close this game in regulation, but a missed box out led to a Michigan State three and overtime. Illinois had lost all of the momentum and MSU pounced on them from the moment overtime started. It was frustrating, but we thought it could be a good learning experience

Second, Illinois lost to Wisconsin at home. The Illini led by 12 points with 8 minutes left. The Illini let Wisconsin right back into the game with missed free throws. Illinois sent the game to overtime, but Wisconsin still had all the momentum; Wisconsin got an early lead in overtime and never looked back. It was another disappointing result, but Illinois was missing two guys. Surely, they would not have let this happen with Boswell and Stojakovic playing people said.

Third, Illinois blew a 23-point first half lead against UCLA. Illinois got complacent when everything was clicking and UCLA stormed back into the game. The momentum was in favor of UCLA, and they were able to pick up a good win. This result had everyone questioning everything. "At what point does this team not have a killer mentality and can close" was the common thought process for many Illini fans after this. I'll be the first to admit those thoughts crept into my mind. After some time to cool off, I was able to convince myself that this would be the last collapse. There is no way Illinois gets lazy when they build a lead again.

That leads us to Friday at the Big Ten Tournament. Illinois earned a triple-bye and drew Wisconsin, a team we have been saying Illinois would beat when healthy. Vegas agreed as Illinois was 8.5-point favorites. Part of that was because Wisconsin was missing Nolan Winter, but regardless, Illinois would have been favored. After Illinois played an unemotional game against Maryland, the Illini seemed to find some of their moxie Even the first possession of the game, Kylan Boswell picked up a technical because he was hyped up after a good stand. I wasn't thrilled with the foul, but honestly, I thought it was worth showing the emotion. Illinois went up 28-13 and everything was fun. It looked like Illinois was about to run Wisconsin out the gym, but the Illini started chucking from three and let Wisconsin right back into the game before half. Another 15-point lead was built by Illinois. This time there was 12 minutes left. Wisconsin erased that lead in 5 minutes and had all the momentum on their side. Illinois had a chance to close the game in regulation but similarly to the MSU game, a missed boxout gave Wisconsin new life and sent it to overtime. Wisconsin scored quickly and Illinois was playing catch-up from there. The refs were terrible. I am not going to pretend like the whistle went Illinois' way, but when we say this after every loss it loses its meaning. At some point Illinois has to control what they can control well enough to overcome a bad whistle. Illinois continues to fail this test against good opponents. It's almost expected now. I was joking that Illinois having a double-digit lead is becoming equivalent to an Aaron Henty defense on 3rd and long: The other team has Illinois right where they want. The funny part is that I don't think that joke is inaccurate. The late game struggles are concerning, but solving the underlying cause of being put in those situations must happen first.

I don't get what is causing this team to lose sight of what is ahead when they build a lead. Every time it seems like Illinois is about to slam the door shut, the other team keeps that door open. Shot selection continues to be a concern. When the threes are falling, it's great, but when they are not going in, it gets ugly. Defensively, I know Illinois is limited in what they can do, but how do you not switch anything up when Nick Boyd and John Blackwell slice and dice the drop coverage? Illinois gave those two an open invitation inside the paint and could not be contained. Illinois' only attempt at a solution was to have a few possessions in zone, which was fine, but not enough. I will never be a division 1 basketball coach, so take my coaching advice with a grain of salt, but I will never understand why Underwood refuses to use a timeout. I thought the game was lost on this sequence: Illinois went up 60-45, John Blackwell scores 7 straight points on 3 possessions to cut the Illini lead to 8, Underwood elects to not use a timeout when it was clear they needed one, Keaton Wagler turns the ball over to Nick Boyd for a free lane to rim, and FINALLY Brad calls a timeout. Why is he waiting to call a timeout until the damage is already done? i genuinely don't understand it. This is an every game problem, and it does not give me confidence a timeout will be called when needed in the NCAA Tournament.

The vibes entering the NCAA Tournament have been this low since the 2023 team. That 2023 team was disaster, so the season ending in the first round was more of a relief than a disappointment. Last season, Illinois got blown out by Maryland in the quarterfinals, but what they did the two weeks prior gave Illinois fans a glimmer of hope. In 2024, Illinois won the Big Ten Tournament, and Terrence Shannon was playing like the National player of the Year. This year, Illinois has little to ride on entering Selection Sunday. Illinois is not hot. They have lost 5 of their last 9. This was a team we thought could compete for a National Championship a month ago. Now, the hope is that Illinois just makes the Sweet 16. I bolded the word "hope" because that used to be "expectation." I don't want to sound spoiled because I understand that second weekend appearances don't grow on trees, but it's sad that I was quite literally asking friends where would they place the 2026 Final Four banner in the State Farm Center, and now I am not confident this team can even win back-to-back games next week. If you're not doubting Illinois' ability to win the next two games, I envy your optimism, but I also suspect you might not be entirely truthful.

Illinois will be a 3 seed on Sunday night. A win over Wisconsin would have put Illinois on the 2 line, but complacency and lack of focus squandered that opportunity. I’m sure once the bracket is revealed on Sunday during NCAA Selection Sunday, I’ll find myself getting hopeful again. But right now, I can’t muster any positive thoughts. The thing about Illinois basketball is they always find a way to reel me back in when I think it’s over. Still, after how bad this last month has been, it’s hard to blame any Illinois fan for keeping their expectations low next week. The pressure is on Illinois. What they do next week will determine whether this season was a success or a complete failure.