Illini spring forward to the postseason with 78-72 win over Maryland

On the final day of the regular season, Illinois finished with a road test against Maryland. The Terps find themselves at 17th in the Big Ten standings and basically had nothing to play for. Illinois is in the midst of earning a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament and needed a win to clinch a triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. You would have thought that Illinois would be the team that played with a sense of urgency and a spike in their energy. Besides David Mirkovic, Illinois had no answers in the energy department. Maryland had more intensity for all 40 minutes collectively, but the Terps were not able to make enough plays late to finish the upset bid. It was reported that Andrej Stojakovic and Brad Underwood have the flu, so maybe that affected the team's energy levels. Maybe playing Maryland in a pretty dead environment did not help too. Whatever the reason was, the level of intensity needs to be better in the next few weeks. Tournament basketball is a whole different beast. A couple of bad minutes can turn a great season mediocre. Illinois will certainly take a win anyway they could, but Illinois needs to go back to the drawing board and figure out how to get back to how they were playing in January.

David Mirkovic carried Illinois to victory. The freshman finished with 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assists. Illinois exploited Maryland's double teams with David's court vision and playmaking ability. Mirkovic only had 3 assists, but he also had several hockey assists. Stat line aside, Mirkovic quite frankly looked like the only Illini who actually wanted to be on the court for long stretches of the game. If Illinois gets that 2 seed on Selection Sunday, remember this David Mirkovic performance. Without him, I can confidently say Illinois would have trailed by double digits at halftime, and likely would have lost the game. This performance emphasizes why retaining him should be step number 1 this offseason.

As a team, Illinois was not as bad as some people thought defensively. Maryland hit many difficult mid-range jumpers. Illinois will live with giving those shots up. It was not like they were getting easy looks at the rim or wide-open threes all night. The defense still was not great though. I talked about how Andre Mills was the guy Illinois had to slow down, but it was another night where Illinois' inability to guard dynamic and athletic guards was put on notice. Mills nearly willed the Terps to a win by himself. He finished the game with 30 points and could not be stopped the entire second half. Illinois will most likely play Wisconsin on Friday, and I'll just say that this should not give anyone hope that Illinois will guard Nick Boyd once again.

On offense, Illinois could not make a shot on the perimeter. It was a 5-24 effort, and one of the makes was off a garbage late shot clock heave that banked in. My biggest frustration when Illinois shoots poorly is that they never seem to stop taking them. Last night, Illinois attempted their lowest number of three-point attempts since the LIU (FINS UP) game in November. More specifically, Illinois only attempted 8 second half threes, which I thought was a lovely surprise. So, I'll give them credit for not shot chucking in the second half. With that said, shooting is starting to become a massive concern. It has been 4 straight games with bad shooting numbers. Well, really only 3.5 games since the first half of the UCLA game does not apply. Everyone on Illinois seems to have dead legs. So many jumpers have missed short. Tomislav Ivisic missed one of his attempts by about 5 feet short of the rim. I know the grind of a 20 game Big Ten schedule can wear on you, but every other team in the country is dealing with fatigue too. Hopefully the added rest with a triple-bye plus the tournament basketball to be played reenergizes Illinois. If the NCAA Tournament is not enough to make those tired legs not feel tired, I don't know what will. Illinois needs to make shots to be deadly, and we have not seen that since the first half against UCLA.

Keaton Wagler in particular looked gassed all night. Underwood did say he was dealing with back stiffness all game. Wagler also might still have pain in his left shoulder when he took that fall against UCLA. I'll give him credit, it has not made him fall off a cliff. Keaton is still doing a good job of getting to rim and drawing fouls. The second half was more promising than the first, where he was held scoreless. The scouting report is out on him. Every team is going to be as physical as possible, and it is starting to bother the freshman. He is just shooting 36% from the field in his last 5 games. Wagler has looked the most fatigued out of everyone. I understand it. He is the number 1 priority for every team, and he is clearly injured. It is just obvious he is not 100%. Keaton attempted 6 free throws in the final 10 minutes of the game. All 6 free throws hit the front of the rim. His legs, and many others, just are not there right now. Illinois needs Wagler to get back to 100% or else one of the upperclassmen needs to step up.

Overall, a win is a win. Illinois will gladly avoid a quad 3, resume killing loss, but more and more questions keep piling up as the postseason is finally here.

What this means:

Illinois has locked up a top 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and will not have to play until quarterfinal Friday. Unfortunately, Nebraska beat Iowa yesterday, creating a three-way tie for second place. Illinois lost the tiebreaker, so they will be on the top half of the bracket as a 4 seed. This means Illinois will likely have to go through Michigan before the championship if they win on Friday. I don't think this reason alone is why Illinois fans should be upset. I think it could be good to see where the Illini stand against the best of best again. The bigger cause for frustration is that Illinois plays on Friday afternoon instead of Friday night. With the tournament being in Chicago, Illinois will get a good turnout either way, but it would have been beneficial to play in the night session.

I am happy to announce that I believe Illinois has clinched a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. No matter what happens next week, I don't see a path where Illinois falls from the 2 line all the way to a 4 seed. A loss against Maryland would have made this untrue, so while it was not how we wanted to see Illinois win, the fact that they did is all that matters seeding wise.

If Illinois wants a 2 seed on Selection Sunday, they must win on Friday at a minimum. Ideally it is against Wisconsin because that would be a Q1-A game. Washington or USC would be a Q2 game. Something to note is that USC has fallen out of the top 75 in the NET, so Illinois' road victory against them is no longer a Q1 win. They were in the 40s when Illinois beat them, but they have completely fallen apart. When USC and Washington play on Wednesday, we will be rooting for the Trojans to win by a lot, but I would not bet on it with how they have played and all the drama within that program.

If Illinois wins on Friday and loses to Michigan, I will feel good about getting a 2 seed, but it will come down to what happens in other conference tournaments. If Illinois wins on Friday and Saturday, the Illini will get a 2 seed no matter what happens on Sunday. The biggest threat to pass Illinois for the final 2 seed is Iowa State, so be prepared to "hate watch" them all of next week. The Cyclones are the 5 seed in the Big 12 tournament. They will play their first game on Wednesday against either Baylor or Arizona State. Illinois' seed could be based directly off of how Iowa State performs.

Illinois needs to rest up and get ready for a big week in Chicago. It's officially postseason basketball!