Final Four Preview and Prediction: (3) Illinois vs (2) UConn

The Road Ends Here! It is April and Illinois one of the final four teams still playing basketball (sorry Crown and NIT fans, you do not count). It has been a long wait for Illini Nation to get back to the promise land, but in year nine of the Brad Underwood era, Illinois is back where it belongs on college basketball's premiere stage. The path to Indy was not easy. In late January and the early days of February, Illinois fans' dreams about this moment were starting to become the expectation. A rough close to the end of the regular season and Big Ten Tournament left so much uncertainty. Illinois had lost five of their last nine games heading into this tournament, but in all but one of those games, Illinois was a rebound or free throw away from winning. The vibes were the lowest it has been all season heading into Selection Sunday. A players only meeting was held following the Wisconsin loss, and three weeks later, the Illini are in the center of the college basketball world with a chance to compete for the school's first National Championship.

Anarchy? Nope, just college basketball.

Your South Regional Champions will meet the East Regional Champions Connecticut Huskies at 5:09 CST. The Illini and the Huskies get the first game of the semis because Arizona and Michigan. has been deemed the "de facto National Championship game" by the public. The winner between Illinois and UConn will be looking to play spoiler on Monday night, but one of them has to win on Saturday first.

Illinois and UConn have built quite the history over the last 2 years. These two programs met in the Elite 8 in 2024, where the infamous 30-0 run occurred. A 30-0 run is now a term coined by Evan Miyakawa as a "husky." It was truly one of the most embarrassing games I have ever witnessed, and it put a horrifying end to what otherwise was the most fun postseason Illinois has had in 19 years.

A nonconference game between the two was held this season in late November on the hideous NBA Cup court in Madison Square Garden. Connecticut won 74-61, but if you want a fun rematch storyline, there really isn't one. Both of these teams are much different now that the first game is borderline irrelevant. Mihailo Petrovic played more minutes than Keaton Wagler and Brandon Lee played double digit minutes. UConn's Tarris Reed and Braylon Mullins ware coming back from injury and were not 100%. Illinois was trying to figure out their personnel at this point. The offense ran through Kylan Boswell and Tomislav Ivisic still. The game on Saturday will be completely different than the one in November. You can just throw that result in the trash. It's a whole new game.

UCONN TEAM OVERVIEW:

Connecticut is 33-5 entering Saturday. They were not the most battletested team due to a very bad Big East this season. The Huskies did not win the Big East regular season or the Big East Conference Tournament. They started the season 22-1 but slipped to bad teams late in the season. Losses to Creighton and Marquette had many question if this team was legit. Danny Hurley did it again somehow though. UConn won probably the toughest region, and it took a second half miracle comeback against Duke in the Regional Finals to do so. Braylon Mullins hit one of the most legendary shots in the history of this tournament to send the Huskies back to the Final Four for the 3rd time in 4 years.

This is probably Dan Hurley's worst of his three final four teams, at least according to the metrics. Connecticut comes into this game 9th on KenPom. Don't get me wrong this is a great team, but they are not on the same level as the 2024 team.

UConn's offense revolves around Tarris Reed. The Michigan transfer has averaged a 20-point double-double this tournament. He has been one of the most dominant bigs this season. Illinois' frontcourt will have to be up to the challenge in single coverage.

The Huskies are also known for running creative off ball sets. Alex Karaban in particular is constantly moving and coming off screens. David Mirkovic will be presented with a tough matchup if Illinois elects to stick him on Karaban. Mirkovic presents UConn with a tough matchup on the other end though. Karaban vs Mirkovic is the most compelling individual matchup this game.

UConn is supposed to be an excellent shooting team, but they have struggled mightily this tournament. Maybe the Braylon Mullins heave gives their team new life from beyond the arc. Solo Ball has tape on his shooting wrist that has hurt his shot, and Silas Demary is playing on a bum ankle. If Illinois gets back to their own form shooting and UConn struggles, Illinois could blow this game open. UConn protects the rim well, so those shots will be there for Illinois.

This should be another game where Illinois allows little free throw attempts. Connecticut is 306th in offensive free throw rate and Illinois is well known for being the least following team in basketball.

PREDICTION:

If you told me a month ago that Illinois was playing in the Final Four and would be favored against a 2 seed, I would have called you a liar. But here we are and the vibes have never been higher. I don't think we have seen Illinois firing on all cylinders since the second half of the Penn game. That will change tonight.

Give me Illinois 76-69

It's the Kylan Boswell game