Out Houstoned Houston in Houston + Iowa preview and prediction

For the second time in three seasons, Illinois is ELITE. Illinois bullied Houston for 40 minutes and are now in the driver's seat to reach the Final Four. All that stands in the way is 9 seeded Big Ten rival, Iowa.

Heading into Thursday night, the question around Illinois was about whether they would be able to be tough enough. Everyone knew Illinois had the skill and size to expose Houston, but if Illinois was not ready to match Houston's intensity, it could have been a long night. Straight from the tip, Illinois looked like the team who everyone should be afraid of and not the other way around. There was not a second in this game where I felt like Illinois was going to lose. It was the most impressive win the Brad Underwood era. You can make an argument for the Iowa State game two seasons ago, but being in complete control for 40 minutes against a 2 seed in their backyard is more impressive in my opinion.

The game started like a Big Ten West football game. No points were being scored. Houston was settling for two-point jumpers like they always do. I said before the game that I thought Illinois' length would show on their contests, and it did. Houston never got comfortable. Every time Cenac Jr. or a guard settled for contested, off-balance twos, I was smiling. Illinois was getting good looks at the rim early, but they were not converting on them. Shots started to fall for Illinois as the half went on, and Houston still could not the side of a barn. Illinois built a 24-16 lead with 3 minutes left in the first half. It was looking like Illinois might take a 10+ point lead into the break. The Illini did not score for the remainder of the half, and Houston nailed a couple of threes to cut the lead to 2. It definitely felt similar to the Iowa State game in the regard that Illinois should have been up by more. Either way, it felt like Illinois was still in complete control and could replicate the defensive performance in the second.

The second half might have been the greatest half of basketball I have ever watched given the circumstances. It got a little mirky at the end with all the missed free throws, but Illinois sucker punched the Cougars with a 17-0 run early in the second half. A Ben Humrichous three forced Kelvin Sampson to call a timeout. Houston fans were left speechless. It was the biggest run Houston has given up in 8 years. They are never on that end of a run. Houston made a couple of surges to keep Illinois on their toes, but the Illini responded to every punch. I got a little nervous late with the insane amount of missed free throws, but I just told myself that means Illinois will shoot 90% from the line on Saturday to calm me down. Finally, some free throws fell, and Illinois dribbled the ball as the clock expired. Illinois won 65-55 and extended their trip in Houston an extra two days for the Elite 8.

The Elite 8 opponent is a familiar one. The 9 seeded Iowa Hawkeyes have made their way down to Houston and will face Illinois for the right to go the Final Four just like we all drew up. I'll be completely honest, I am terrified. Not because I think Illinois will lose, but the thought of this fun March run ending in the hands of Iowa is a bad one. On the other hand, a win over Iowa to go the Final Four will be the greatest day of my life. I think I speak for everyone when I say is just needs to be 5:09 CST already.

In the lone matchup this season, Illinois got the better of Iowa in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Illinois led 29-11 early in the first half. Andrej Stojakovic was phenominal and so was Keaton Wagler. Iowa kept chipping away at the lead and made it a 4-point game late. If the game were a couple of minutes longer, it felt like Iowa would have won. Bennett Stirtz had a rough night, and it wasn't until he sat on the bench with 4 fouls when Iowa started their run. If the second half of the game back in January is a preview of Saturday, it will be a war. Illinois can't come into the one thinking they have already reached the Final Four. Based on what I saw from the postgame interviews, this won't be the case, but it's still a concern due to human nature.

Iowa plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, so it won't show in the point category, but Iowa's offense has been the best of any team in the field since the tournament started. In each of their 3 games, Iowa offensive efficiency rating has exceeded 141 on Torvik. That is incredible. The craziest part is that Bennett Stirtz has not even been great. It's been all the role players stepping up into their best versions of themselves that has willed Iowa to this point. Iowa has been very impressive, but Illinois should win this game and be on their way to Indianapolis.

Keys to an Illini Victory:

ATTACK THE RIM: This is what Illinois did to get off to a great start in Iowa City in January. Iowa's rim protection is non-existent. Illinois should continue to get to the rim at a high rate like they have in the last two games. This time, Illinois will need to make the layups. There were few too many misses around the rim against Houston. If Illinois cleans that up, they should score in the paint with ease. This feels like another game where Andrej is not stoppable.

TAKE CARE OF THE BALL: If you are Iowa, you are banking on Illinois to be careless with the basketball to slow them down. If you are Illinois, you feel pretty good about playing a defense that needs to force turnovers. VCU and Houston came in with the same approach and failed. Illinois is 8th in the country in offensive turnover rate. They need to continue to show that with crisp passing and limited dribbling. Having bigs with great vision and passing ability comes in clutch for moments like these.

MAKE FREE THROWS: Part of me was kind of happy watching Illinois miss so many free throws late against Houston because that means Illinois won't miss a free throw on Saturday. In all seriousness, Illinois might not be able to afford another 12 for 21 night from the line. It will be another game where Illinois dominates the free throw attempt battle if everything plays out like it normally does. Illinois has to be ready to make more of them.

BE TOUGHER: This has been the most impressive part of Illinois' run. They have looked so locked in and willing to do anything to win. If Illinois is tougher than Iowa, a lot would have to go wrong for Illinois to lose

Prediction:

I can't believe we are only 40 minutes away from reaching the Final Four. I was not surprised that Illinois beat Houston, but I was surprised the way it happened. I think this game against Iowa will be much closer. I could see this game following a similar game script from the first meeting. Illinois takes an early lead, but Iowa claws their way back. I just don't see how Illinois can pass up a golden opportunity to reach the Final Four against a Big Ten foe that's a 9 seed.

Give me Illinois 77-73 with our All-American nailing late free throws to seal it.

It's the Keaton Wagler game