2/24 Bracketology Update: Where do the Illini stand?

The greatest month of the year is swiftly approaching. There is a certain beauty to March, an electricity in the air that only college basketball can create. It's a time where campuses unite and legends are born overnight. All it takes is One Shining Moment to forever be in college basketball lore. We are just 19 days away from the unveiling of the 68-team field on Selection Sunday. Teams across the country have been building their resumes, battling through conference play and signature nonconference matchups, all with the hope of hearing their name called on college basketball’s biggest stage. For the 6th season in a row, the Illinois Fighting Illini will be fortunate enough to be 1 of the 68 called. The only questions that remain: What seed will Illinois earn and where will they be sent?

With a 6-day gap in between Illinois' west coast trip and the highly anticipated home game against #3 Michigan, I thought now would be a perfect time to zoom out to the larger picture and see where the Illini stand.

So, without further ado, let’s take a closer look at where Illinois stands and what their March path could look like.

As it stands on February 24th, Illinois is currently on the 2 seed line. The section committee looks at two things. First, it's your resume metrics and second is your predictive metrics. The resume metrics consists of KPI, SOR, and WAB. If you take a look at Illinois' resume metrics, they are sitting at an average of 9.7. You want this number to be as low as possible. A 9.7 is currently good enough for 9th in the country. This means Illinois' resume is good enough to be on the border of a 2 and 3 seed. The selection committee also made it a note that Wins Above Bubble is one of the most important data points they are going to look at. Currently, that is Illinois' best resume metric at 8th in the country, which is a good sign. Predictive metrics are also used. This consists of BPI, KenPom, and Bart Torvik. The predictive metrics are boosting Illinois up with an average of 5.0, which is good enough for 5th in the country. Combine these resume and predictive metrics, Illinois is in good shape for a 2 seed.

Currently the top 3 overall seeds seem to be locked in. Maybe I am stretching it a little, but Duke, Michigan, and Arizona would have to completely fall off over the next two weeks to not be a 1 seed. The next 9 teams all can either reach that final 1 seed or become a 2 seed. Those 9 teams in order of where they currently stand are UConn, Iowa State, Illinois, Purdue, Houston, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, and Gonzaga. This means I currently believe that Illinois would be the 6th overall seed. There is some debate on Illinois, Houston, and Purdue. You could make an argument to place any of those three teams in any order. I believe Illinois' win over Purdue in Mackley Arena still keeps the Illini above the Boilermakers. When the committee released their current protected seeds last Saturday, Iowa State was above Houston at the time. People thought it should have been the other way around despite Iowa State beating Houston at home. This tells me the committee values head-to-head, and considering Illinois did it away from home, they have the advantage over Purdue at the moment. I also think Houston's lack of Quad 1-A wins are holding them back. Houston is 3-5 in Q1-A and Illinois is 6-4 in Q1-A. If you look at Houston's remaining schedule, they only have three Quad 2 opportunities left. This means Houston must wait until the Big 12 Tournament to pick up more Quad 1 victories. Illinois has the chance of picking up another marquee win against Michigan on Friday night.

If you were to start "hate watching" teams, it should be Houston, Purdue, Florida, and Kansas because those teams are the most likely to pass Illinois and drop them to a 3 seed. Unless Illinois were to lose out, which is highly unlikely, I believe they will not be able to fall further than a 3 seed. That is excellent news.

Below I have added a table from BracketOdds - How Far Does Each Seed Advance?

This table shows the percentage that each seed goes from the first round to the Final Four. The difference between a 3 and 4 seed is notable when looking at reaching the Elite 8. There is only a 4.4% difference in how often a 3 and a 4 reach the second weekend, but that rises to 10% when going from the Sweet 16 to the Elite 8. This is because being on the bottom half of the bracket is a significant advantage. Being on the bottom ensures you will not have to face a 1 seed until the Elite 8. If the 2024 Illini were a 4 seed in the same region they were, they would not have reached the Elite 8. That's why I believe the difference between a 3 and a 4 seed is the most important in the NCAA Tournament. While it would be disappointing for Illinois to fall to a 3, as long as they avoid collapsing to a 4, they should feel pretty good about their chances of going on a run.

The difference between a 2 and 3 is most notable when reaching the final four. A 2 seed reaches the Final Four 20% of the time, while a 3 only reaches it 10.6% of the time. That's why Illinois trying to stay on the 2 line is so important. Matchups obviously play a part, but setting yourself up through seeding is also crucial in determining your fate.

I also went on Bart Torvik (T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank). There is a feature on his website that shows where similar resumes to a team in the past have been seeded. When you go to Illinois' this is what you get:

As you can see, every single team on this list was a 2 seed. Illinois is in an excellent position. While reaching a 1 seed was possible if they had beaten UCLA, maintaining a 2 is all Illinois should be worried about now. I still wouldn't say it is impossible for Illinois to reach a 1 seed, but those odds are slim at best, which is fine. I would actually argue that a team does not want to be the final 1 seed this season. It might sound crazy, but the final 1 seed will be placed into the South Region assuming Duke, Michigan, and Arizona are the top 3 overall seeds. The South Region Semifinals and Finals are being played in Houston, TX. Do you know who could very likely be a 2 or 3 seed in the south? That's right, Houston could very well be the 2 or 3 seed in that region. That means the potential Elite 8 matchup in Houston would be played in the lower seed's backyard. All I'll say is don't be surprised if Dan Hurley melts down after they get a 1 seed in the south and have Houston in their region.

Illinois' path to a 2 seed is in their control in their next 3 games. If Illinois beats Michigan, Oregon, and Maryland, I am confident that regardless of what happens in the Big Ten Tournament, Illinois will be a 2 seed.

If Illinois loses to Michigan and wins their final two games, their fate could be decided on what they do in the Big Ten Tournament and what other teams around them do.

If Illinois loses to Michigan and one of their final two games, a 2 seed would be unlikely. The Illini would need basically every domino to fall in their favor to be a 2 and not a 3.

If Illinois loses their next three games, then they are in danger of falling to a 4 seed, but there is basically a 0% chance of this happening.

Now let's get into where Illinois will be playing. With Michigan nearly locking up the 1 seed in the Midwest Region, Illinois will sadly not be able to be put in the Midwest Region. The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 are being played at the United Center in that region, so that's definitely unfortunate. Illinois could be placed into any of the other three regions, and that is not really in their control. The other three regions are being played in Hoston, San Jose, and Washington DC. I think the Illini Faithful would best turn out in the West Region in San Jose, but I am confident that regardless of where they play, Illinois fans will turn up for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Plus, Illinois also has to win two games before they even get to that point.

Illinois is in control of where they will play their first and second round games. I've mentioned this previously, but the committee asks where the number 1 overall seed would like to play. After that, the committee goes down the protected seed list, which is just the top 16 teams, and places them in the closest location geographically. They do this until all 8 locations have 2 teams in them. So, the higher you are seeded, the better chances you have of getting the closest location to your campus.

The eight first and second round sites are, Buffalo, Greenville, Oklahoma City, Portland, Tampa, Philadelphia, San Diego, and St. Louis. The closest location to Champaign is St. Louis. This would be ideal for Illinois because the Metro East is full of Illini fans that won't have to travel. The next closest locations are Greenville, Buffalo, and Oklahoma City. I am confident that Illinois will be playing in 1 of those 4 locations for the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

The path to being sent to St. Louis is quite simple: Just stay above either Iowa State or Purdue. Only 2 protected seeds can be sent to a certain location, and Illinois' only real threats of taking St. Louis are the Cyclones and the Boilermakers. Maybe Kansas could get into the conversation though the backdoor, but that's unlikely. If you are curious like me on what days those locations play, here they are: St. Louis is Friday-Sunday and Greenville, Buffalo, and Oklahoma City play on Thursday-Saturday. Come Selection Sunday, we will have an excellent idea where and on what days the Illini play their first and second rounds games.

The fun started in November, but it's an undeniable fact that the college basketball season gets more fun as February winds down and March approaches. There is still plenty of basketball to played, and Illinois has everything out in front of them. In a few days we will be repeating what the great Jon Rothstein says, "THIS IS MARCH!"

Cue the music: