Illinois advances + Round of 32 Preview (3) Illinois vs (11) VCU

What a Thursday in Greenville for the Illini! Illinois put together their best half of the season against Penn to win 105-70. Illinois scored 1.97 points per possession in the second half. I have not seen any confirmation, but I would bet my life savings that was the most points per possession in a single half of an NCAA Tournament game. 1.97 points per possession is ludicrous. Illinois could have scored a layup on every possession, and it would have only been slightly more effective. It has been a long time since Illinois put together a complete half like that. I know it is Penn, but the way the Illini played in the second half is how a Final Four team plays. Coming into this season, we all thought this would be a veteran led team, and we could not have been more wrong. This team is going as far as the freshman take them. I don't want to be hyperbolic, but I really think David Mirkovic will be the next All-American for Illinois right after his teammate Keaton Wagler. Both of them were nothing short of fantastic. I could go on and on about how much fun the second half was, but this team did not come to Greenville to win just 1 game. All eyes must be on VCU now.

Illinois' tip time got pushed back yesterday because of the incredible game right before them. VCU and North Carolina played in an instant classic, a game that March is all about. The Rams mounted a 19 point second half comeback and won in overtime, although most would say UNC just collapsed. Either way, it showed how dangerous VCU is. This is not just a typical 11 seed from a mid-major conference. Illinois was in the same position two years ago. The A-10 champion Duquesne upset BYU and Illinois got an easier second round opponent. I am sure the parallels will be posted all of today, but this VCU team is not even in the same stratosphere as Duquesne. The Dukes were 88th in KenPom and VCU is 42. Getting to the second weekend is difficult because you most likely have to beat a really good team in the Round of 32. VCU is a good team that Illinois will have to beat. The Rams are not just going to hand Illinois a free trip to the Sweet 16 like Duquesne did in 2024.

VCU has better guards than North Carolina. UNC has the more dominant big man with Veesaar, but VCU's group of guards scared me more than Veesaar or Trimble did. Also, Phil Martelli Jr. is a better coach than Hubert Davis. I was not pleased with UNC choking their game away, but there is still no excuse for Illinois to lose to a team they are better than.

VCU is coming win winners of 17 of their last 18. Their only loss came to Saint Louis who ran Georgia out of the gym on Thursday. The metrics still are not that high on them but trust me when I say these guards are legit.

Here's everything you need to know about VCU:

I have never begun one of these starting with someone off the bench, so congrats to Terrence Hill Jr. for being the first. Hill is VCU's best player, but he comes off the bench. He earned All A-10 honors and was also named A-10 Sixth Man of the Year. He is averaging 15 points per game and just dropped 34 against UNC. He is quick and shifty. Illinois will need Kylan Boswell to defend at a high level once again.

It's not just Hill that Illinois has to worry about in the backcourt, Nyk Lewis is another guy who can give Illinois trouble. Lewis put together an incredible freshman season that earned him A-!0 Freshman of the Year. Lewis is a smaller guard, but unlike AJ Levine, he can shoot the ball well. Illinois can't dork him like they did to Levine on Thursday.

Jadrian Tracy is a guy Illinois fans may be familiar with. Tracy played at Oregon last year before transferring to VCU. he is another lethal shooter that VCU has. He had a rough game against UNC, where he only played 15 minutes. I would expect Tracy to bounce back.

Brandon Jennings and Tyrell Ward are the final backcourt pieces for VCU. They are not quite at the same level as the other three guys, but when they are the 4th and 5th guards, it's a dangerous sight to behold.

In the frontcourt, VCU does not have the size to compete with Illinois. Henri Veesaar dominated the Rams on Thursday, and Illinois will need performances like that from Tomislav or David. This is where VCU's mid major disadvantage shows. This does not mean that they are soft or bad though. Credit to Isaac Trotter for pointing this out months ago, Illinois struggles to defend teams with five shooters on the court. I regret to inform anyone that VCU does not have a shooting liability in their rotation.

Lazar Djokovic adds another tally to the number of Balkans playing in this game. The Serbian forward can stretch the floor well. Barry Evans and Michael Belle are the final roational pieces. They both do not have the size to match Illinois, but they both can make shots and will extend the Illini defense.

As a team, VCU has no weaknesses from a skill perspective. They are average to above average in most facets of the game. The only glaring weakness they have is lack of size that Illinois can exploit. The one thing VCU does at an elite level is shoot the 3. The Rams also fire them up at a high clip and have no one on the court that is a true liability. Illinois won't be able to sag off someone and make their size more noticeable. This should worry Illinois fans because the Illini's worst defensive performances have come from teams with five shooters. VCU is shooting 37% this year, and to pull off an upset that will be the stat that decides it.

If you want to feel better about this, VCU has not been great against their top tier competition. In 7 games against top 50 opponents on Torvik, VCU's offensive efficiency ranks 194th in the country. VCU is also good at getting to the free throw line, and the one thing Illinois' defense does exceptionally well is not fouling. I still think this is a tougher matchup than most are making it seem, but there is a clear path to victory.

I've been praising VCU, but they are still an A-10 team in the regard of size. Illinois is the tallest team in the country. There is no way VCU can stop Illinois in the paint. Henri Veesaar on UNC had a dominant performance against the Rams. Illinois can't settle for threes early without looking for paint touches. Obviously, I want to see David get as many touches as possible, but I also want to see Tomi on the block. Phil Martelli Jr. made it clear that they are going to try and slow down David any chance they get. With how many options Illinois has, the Illini are a tough team to prepare for in a couple of days. I think Tomislav could fall beneath the cracks and not get much attention. We saw Tomi score when given the chance in the post against Penn. I would like to see Illinois make a more concerted effort for Tomi to get easy looks early. I thought there was too much settling early against Penn. When the shots fall like they did in the second half against Penn it's great, but if the team misses a couple of threes early, there needs to be a sense of urgency to attack the rim before shooting threes again.

Illinois has the advantage on the glass in most games, but they really have an advantage against VCU. I said before the Penn game that Illinois is less vulnerable to upsets because mid-major teams can't compete on the glass. This holds true against VCU, but Illinois still needs to show the toughness to come down with rebounds.

Illinois also needs to have their best defensive performance of the season. Illinois offense should have no issues scoring, but I think VCU might be able to say the same thing. It will be a group effort given how deep this backcourt is, but the Illini's defensive ace needs to play like one. I have been critical of Kylan Boswell's defensive consistency. He was fantastic on TJ Power, and he needs to do it again against Terrence Hill Jr.

Prediction:

I think people are overlooking this VCU team in the national media. I would hope Illinois does not given they have not lost games like this all year. VCU presents a tough matchup for Illinois' personnel to cover. Illinois might also be too big for VCU to stop. Overall, I think VCU will make Illinois earn a victory. it hink Illinois wins a close 40-minute contest.

I'll take Illinois 86-82 to advance to the Sweet 16 for the second time in the last three years.

It's the Tomislav Ivisic game