NCAA Tournament draw + Round of 64 Preview (3) Illinois vs (14) Penn

For the 6th straight year, the Illinois Fighting Illini heard their name called on Selection Sunday. The Illini were called as a 3 seed in the South Region. It felt rather disappointing in the moment considering Illinois was in complete control of earning a 2 seed, but being the 10th overall seed is still quite the accomplishment. Obviously, once you are seeded the records are thrown out, but I just wanted to point out that Illinois' full body of work has been great despite a rough last month and a half.

Illinois will play 14 seed Penn with former Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery back at his alma mater. The Illini and the Quakers will meet in Greenville, South Carolina on Thursday night at approximately 8:25 CST. Illinois was the favorite to be playing in St. Louis just a couple of weeks ago, but with the Illini's early exit in the Big Ten Tournament and Purdue's Big Ten Tournament title run, Illinois will be playing in Greenville instead. I actually like Illinois' draw though. The Illini will potentially be in a geographical disadvantage in the round of 32 and the regional semifinals, but the teams Illinois drew in their bracket make up for it. Illinois is a currently a 24.5-point favorite against Penn on Thursday night. For reference, When Illinois was a 3 seed in 2024, they were only favored by 13.5 against Morehead State. There were many top teams in mid-major conferences that lost in their conference tournament this year, making the bottom 3 seed lines a little weaker than usual. Penn finished 3rd in the Ivy Legue standings but won back-to-back overtime games in the Ivy League Tournament to clinch a spot in the field.

I said I did not want to see Penn when it was a possibility that they would be a 14 seed because of the storylines that it brings. Our old friend Fran McCaffery is the head coach at Penn and has brought the Quakers to the NCAA Tournament in his first-year coaching at his alma mater. Illinois and Fran have had their fair share of battles in the Big Ten over the last two decades. I really would have preferred to draw a 14 seed that has no connection whatsoever, but at the end of the day Illinois needs to win as a 24.5-point favorite regardless of how much a storyline matters.

I don't want to get ahead of myself, but Illinois also drew the most ideal 6 seed in the bracket. Illinois was not going to draw Tennessee since they met in December, so that left Illinois with either UNC, BYU, or Louisville. BYU and Louisville have more dynamic guards that Illinois struggles to guard. Considering that, I said UNC was the ideal 6 seed for Illinois to draw despite the fact the game would be in Greenville where many Tar Heel fans will be. Illinois has been better in road games this season, so I don't think even think it's going to affect Illinois negatively as much as I thought earlier. Illinois could also play 11 seeded VCU, and if I am going to be honest, they scare me more than North Carolina. I will get into those reasons If Illinois and VCU both win on Thursday. Regardless, Illinois SHOULD win at least two games in this NCAA Tournament.

Every year, Jon Rothstein labels each of the four regions. This year, he is calling the South Region the "Region of Pressure" and I think it fits perfectly for Illinois. Illini fans are simply asking for consistent trips to the second weekend. While we thought this team could go further, and many still do, I think the fair expectation is to make the Sweet 16. Anything beyond that would be incredible. When you are a 3 seed, the pressure is on you to make it past the first weekend. I know Illinois is not the only program who has underachieved in March recently. I am sure if you asked Iowa State and Arizona fans alike, they would say they underachieve the most. Illinois fans will never let go of the 2021 Loyola loss until they get back to the Final Four. This loss has created a narrative that Illinois and Brad Underwood can't win in March. The issue with this narrative is that the Loyola game, albeit one of the worst losses in the storied history of Illinois Basketball, is the only game Underwood has lost in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. I don't know if the agony of defeat from March 21, 2021, will ever go away, but every time Illinois makes a second weekend, the pain slowly will chip away. Terrence Shannon Jr. and Illinois made a dent on it in their 2024 Elite 8 run. The pressure is on this year's Illinois team to make a dent of their own because we know what they are capable of. Illinois is 4-5 in their last 9 games, but 4 of those losses were in one possession games with leads ranging from 9 to 23 points. We have all seen what the peak looks like. Illinois was 20-3 and looked like they were borderline unstoppable. Illinois is a couple of rebounds and free throws away from entering this tournament as a common Final Four and National Championship pick. Many have lost hope, and I understand. If Illinois has a double-digit lead at any point in this tournament, I won't feel safe. That does not mean this team can't achieve what is set out for them. Purdue turned their season around last week in Chicago, so why can't Illinois figure things out in Greenville? It's time for Illinois to lock it in and it begins on Thursday night against Penn.

Here is everything you need to know about the Penn Quakers:

AJ Lavine starts at point guard for Penn. Lavine is from Elmhurst, Illinois. He is averaging 8.3 ppg and 4 apg. He does fit that mold of a quick and craft guard that have given the Illini trouble. He has not shot the ball well in his first two years in college, and Illinois will have major positional size advantage on him.

TJ Power is a former 5 star who played his freshman season at Duke. He had another quick stop with Virginia before deciding to take a step down into the Ivy League. Power has had a great season and is starting to show why he once a highly touted prospect. Power earned First team All-Ivey honors, and he reintroduced himself to the country on Sunday in the Ivy League Championship game. Power had 44 points and hit a couple clutch threes at the end of regulation to even get his team to this moment. Many people are claiming Power can be the next March darling that busts brackets. At 6'9, Power presents an interesting matchup for Illinois. I am not really sure who Illinois will assign onto him. No matter who it is, they must run Power off the 3-point line. He is one of the nation's best shooters at 43.3%. Power is averaging 16.8 ppg and 7 rpg. Illinois might not be able to afford allowing Power to have a generational performance if they want to survive and advance.

TJ Power is not even the team's leading scorer. That title belongs to Ethan Roberts by 0.1 ppg. Roberts is the second Illinois native on this Penn team as he's from Arlington Heights. Roberts missed the entirety of Ivy League Tournament due to a concussion. This was his second concussion this season. The Second Team All-Ivey League member is going to try and give it a go against Illinois, but it is no guarantee he plays. If Roberts does play, Penn has another dangerous 3-point shooter. The senior is a 40% shooter from deep. He is only 6'5 so he should be an easier cover for Illinois.

Michael Zanoni is a 6'5 forward. He transfered in from Mercer after the 2024 season, so he was actually former teammates with Jake Davis. Just like Davis, Zanoni can shoot the cover off the ball. If you have not noticed a theme between these Penn players by now, it's simple. Penn has elite shooters and Zanoni is one of them.

Augustus Gerhart rounds out the starting lineup. At 6'9 he is a complete non-shooting threat. He has not attempted a single three in his entire career. This should favor Illinois because they defend a lot better when their opponent has someone who can't shoot on the floor. Illinois' size advantage should be shown, but the Illini still have to put in effort to keep Gerhart off the offensive glass.

Off the bench Penn has a third Illinois native. Dalton Scantlebury is a 6'9 center from Chicago. The Quakers most dangerous bench weapon is Cam Thrower though. He is another elite shooter for Penn. If Ethan Roberts does not give it a go, Thrower will be inserted into the starting lineup. Lucas Lueth and Jay Jones round out the rotation.

As a team, Penn is similar to UCLA in the sense that they are an excellent shooting team, but they don't take that many threes. They shoot 38.7% from 3 as a team, which is top 15 nationally. They only shoot them at the 273rd highest rate in the country, so they are selective. If there is anything that should scare Illinois it is how well they shoot the ball. You might be thinking "I doubt they shoot it well against good competition." In five games against top 100 opponents, Penn has hit 44% of their threes. The Quakers are also good at defending the three. Penn's opponents only make 31.7% from 3. Penn is in the bottom 25 in 2-point field goal percentage. It would not be a Fran McCaffery team if they did not try to up the tempo. They are 89th in adjusted tempo this season.

Keys to an Illini victory:

ATTACK THE RIM:

If Illinois does this consistently and at a high level, Penn has no chance of winning. Illinois is the tallest team in the country. Penn's tallest player in the rotation is 6'9. Illinois should feast in the paint. If the Illini don't score 50 points in the paint, I will be disappointed. I want Illinois to establish a post presence early with David Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivisic. Illinois cannot let Penn turn this game into a fast-paced shooting contest. Illinois must control the tempo and feeding the post is key. The Illini must work inside and out. The ball needs to touch the paint and look for threes off post traps/dribble penetration. If Tomislav Ivisic has more three-point attempts than post touches by the first media timeout, I am going to lose it. Penn is 287th in the country in defensive two-point field goal percentage. It would be a coaching malpractice if Illinois tries to outshoot this elite shooting Penn team. There has been a lot of talk about Illinois' lack of toughness. If Illinois does not dominate in the paint, those concerns will only grow more, and it could end their season.

RUN PENN OFF THE THREE POINT LINE:

Penn is one of the least efficient two-point shooting teams in the country. Illinois must expose that further. Penn likes to run some actions with pin down screens. It's similar to what Nebraska did against Illinois. The first time Illinois faced Nebraska, Illinois let Pryce Sandfort get some easy looks early and it was costly. Illinois did a better job in the rematch. There can't be another scenario where Illinois allows a guy like TJ Power build early confidence with in-rhythm threes. Illinois can't look up at the scoreboard trailing 9-0 after 3 possessions like they did against Morehead State in 2024.

DOMINATE THE GLASS:

Illinois' size sort of gives them upset immunity. Penn simply does not have the bodies to compete with Illinois on the glass. Illinois should win this margin by 20. Just because Illinois is bigger, it does not mean they can just nonchalantly dominate the glass. They still have to want it and show the toughness that everyone wants to see.

DO NOT GET COMPLACENT:

There has been too much evidence that suggests when Illinois builds a lead, they get lazy and unfocused. It is very likely that Illinois is up by double digits in the second half. History suggests that Penn will have Illinois right where they want them. There is NO EXCUSE for Illinois to take a couple of minutes off. We have seen 4 losses come directly from this. The effort and shot selection need to be sharp for all 40 minutes.

Prediction:

Illinois is a 24.5-point favorite for a reason. Penn was not even the best team in the Ivy League. I do think Illinois size will be too much for Penn to overcome. I think Penn will make the game much more competitive than most think. The Ivy League representative usually represents their conference well. Even in losses, the Ivy League teams have pushed teams to the wire. I think Illinois will only be up by single digits at half before kind of blowing the game open in the second half. I like Illinois to win, but Penn to cover this strangely large spread.

I'll take Illinois to win 81-64, but it doesn't matter what the score is this time of the year. JUST SURVIVE!

It's the David Mirkovic game