Pregame Guide and Prediction: #10 Illinois @ USC

Illinois begins their California trip with a desperate USC team trying to get on the right side of the bubble. USC enters 18-7 but lacks any true marquee win that stands out on their resume. They are 2-5 in quadrant 1 games, and one of those will constantly be teetering between quad 1 and quad 2 with Seton Hall being 50th in the NET currently. USC needs to pick up a true quality win, and time is running out as we approach March. It has not been the greatest season for Musselman and the Trojans who have dealt with injuries since the offseason.

Here is everything you need to know about USC:

At point guard USC starts a midseason addition. Kam Woods a transfer from Robert Morris was added to the roster near Christmas. He has played in 13 games for the Trojans. This is his 5th school in as many years. Woods is a good playmaker and plays with a lot of energy. Woods is a smaller guard which might show against the Illini, especially if Andrej Stojakovic is playing.

Alijah Arenas is a five-star freshman and son of former NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas. Alijah got into a serious car accident in April of 2025 and was placed into a medically induced coma. He missed the first 18 games of the season. He made his debut against Northwestern a month ago and has played in every game since. Arenas is a high-volume shooter. He shoots shots of all degrees of difficulty. His efficiency numbers are not the greatest, but he is capable of scoring 30 in any given game. This is in large part because of Chad Baker-Mazzara's injury, but in his last 3 games, he has scored 29, 24, and 25. He is an incredibility versatile scorer. His biggest room for growth would be shooting consistency and shot selection. Arenas is also on the scrawnier side and could benefit from getting stronger. If USC is able to get him for another season, they have a great piece to build off for next year.

Chad Baker-Mazzara is one of the most hated players in the country. He is too old to be on his parents' health insurance, but he is still living the dream of playing college basketball. At 26, the fifth-year senior has seen his most usage at USC. He played in the final four as an Auburn Tiger last year. Baker-Mazzara left the Indiana game with a knee injury and has not played since. With a week off after their last game against Ohio State, this game was circled as the target return date. CBM is a long wing who is the engine behind everything USC does. He performs on both ends. He is a well above average shooter. CBM is a career 39% three-point shooter. If Baker-Mazzara gives it a go tonight, Illinois is going to have a handful guarding both Arenas and CBM. The availability of Andrej Stojakovic will be key for Illinois if CBM does end up playing.

Ezra Ausar is guy who has kind of flown under the radar this season. As a senior, the 6'9 forward is averaging 16 points and 6 rebounds per game. He is doing this on 60% shooting as well. Ausar is a well-rounded traditional power forward. The battle between Ausar and Mirkovic will be fun to watch.

Jacob Cofie rounds out USC's starting 5. The 6'10 sophomore from Seattle projects as a potential NBA prospect with his size and mobility at either frontcourt spot. Cofie is athletic big with a good frame. This season he is averaging 9 points and 7 rebounds per game. He is still working on improving the jumper to become a real stretch threat. Cofie is shooting 30% from 3, so he will make the defense at least be honest.

USC's lack of depth off the bench is really noticeable. Rodney Rice's season ending injury played a huge role in this. Jordan Marsh has been solid, but other than him the bench is extremely thin. USC has a 7'5 center who comes in on occasion. Gabe Dynes transferred in from Youngstown State and provides instant rim protection and shot blocking capabilities. Everyone else on the bench will probably play a maximum of 5 minutes if they even get on the court.

Overall, as a team USC is excellent at getting to the free throw line. In fact, they are number 1 in the country in offensive free throw rate. This matchup has the number 1 offensive free throw rate versus the number 1 defensive free throw rate. Surely something has to give on Wednesday night. USC is a better defensive team. Their offense can struggle, but the defense has been pretty solid. It is a top 30 defense in America. They have really good rim protection so finishing around the rim will be important for the Illini. USC will try to speed up Illinois.

Keys for an Illini victory:

Do not foul. This has been the motor behind Illinois' defense. They simply do not foul. With a USC offense who needs to get to the line to score, Illinois has to play sound defensively once again.

Hit open threes. USC likes to allow teams to get off many three point attempts. Teams are only shooting 29.6% from deep against the Trojans. USC has not seen many teams capable of lighting it up as well as Illinois can.

Keep USC off the glass. When Illinois loses, it can often go back to the rebounding battle. USC is good at getting their own misses back but are not great at keeping their opponents off the offensive glass. Illinois can wear out USC by getting second and third chances all night.

Prediction:

This is kind of difficult without knowing the availability of Andrej Stojakovic for Illinois and Chad Baker-Mazzara for USC. No matter what combination is out there, I think Illinois is too good for USC to keep up. Teams have not struggled as much in game one of the west coast trips as they have in game two. I like Illinois to get and keep a healthy lead for most of the game.

I'll take Illinois 82-71

It's the Ben Humrichous game