Pregame Guide and Prediction: #10 Illinois vs #3 Michigan

#3 Michigan is in town, and they are looking to become the outright regular season Big Ten Champs. This game has been circled on the calendar the minute the Big Ten schedule release came out. Illinois and Michigan were expected to be at the top of the standings, but the bigger reason this game had hype was because of Morez Johnson Jr. The former Illini transferred to Michigan last offseason. Morez had been committed to Illinois since his sophomore year in high school. He watched in person as Trent Frazier sprinted up the court with the Orange Krush flooding the floor as Illinois clinched a Big Ten Title against Iowa in 2022. He stayed committed and had a solid freshman year in Champaign. Illinois thought the future was bright with Morez holding it down in the front court. Morez allegedly signed a NIL deal that was non-binding to come back for year two but changed his mind days later and went to conference foe Michigan.

Nearly a year later, a hostile and raucous State Farm Center awaits his return and will do anything to not let Morez escape with a win. In an era where players come and go all the time via the transfer portal, this loss felt different. It’s easy for fans to wish players well and move on in most cases, but Morez betrayed his state school that he had been committed to for 3 years and relocated to a school in the same conference. He knew what he was signing up for the minute he made that decision. He deserves all the hostility in the crowd because he stabbed Illini Nation straight in the heart. He was a fan favorite and turned into a traitor in just one day. While no one on the team or staff will ever say it publicly, I truly believe that this move felt personal towards them, and they will try to do anything to prevent Morez from clinching an outright title in the State Farm Center not as an Illini.

We saw Jake Davis in his pregame availability when asked about Morez's return say, "I think he's gonna hear it. Fans are gonna let him know, as they should. He left. Nothing against it, love Morez but I think it'll be good for him to return to what could've been, what he could've had." Davis said this in a tone that makes me believe he personally was betrayed by Morez. While I am just speculating, in my opinion, it sounded like Jake was hurt by Morez's departure. "What could've been, what he could've had" is a fascinating thought. Morez could have been an All-American, had his jersey hang in the rafters for eternity, and won at the highest level all while staying home and doing it for his state school. Instead, he threw all that in-state legacy away. Johnson's decision to leave hasn't hurt his pro chances or winning. He is currently playing for the #3 team in the country and is a projected first round pick. I just can't help but think that everything he is doing in Ann Arbor could have been done in Champaign.

Being from the state of Illinois and being able to throw on the Orange and Blue is something very many dream of, but few are capable. Ayo Dosunmu will always go down as one of the most important players in Illinois Basketball history because he made it cool for the top players in Illinois, like Morez, to stay in Illinois. Ayo's legacy might never be matched, and he never even made it out of the second round of the NCAA Tournament. His impact went beyond winning basketball games. At Michigan, a player can be great. At Illinois, a homegrown star can be immortal.

That’s why Ayo’s legacy feels so untouchable. He didn’t just elevate himself; he elevated the identity of Illinois Basketball. He made it cool for top talent to stay. He opened doors for players like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Kylan Boswell to come back home and add to that story. Morez could have carried that torch even further. He could have inspired the next wave of Chicago and Illinois athletes the way Ayo did. He could have doubled down on the idea that the best in Illinois stays in Illinois. Instead, he chose a different path. A path that leads him to the State Farm Center as an enemy and not a friend on Friday night.

I could go on and on about the legacy Morez threw away, but we have a top 10 matchup to talk about. While this game won't have many implications on the Big Ten race like we thought it would a couple of weeks ago, this game is still important. Mathematically, Illinois is not eliminated from getting a share of the Big Ten. They would need to win their final 2 games after this one, but they would also need Michigan to lose their final 2 games. This Michigan team isn't losing 3 games in a row, so that won't happen. The importance of this game stems from everything I mentioned about Morez, but also because of seeding. A win for the Illini would greatly improve their chances of earning a 2 seed on Selection Sunday and have a good path to make an extended March run that could perhaps leak into April. I know the importance of the Big Ten Tournament is commonly disagreed upon, but everyone can agree that not having to play until Friday is a treat. A win for Illinois would almost certainly mean they will earn a triple-bye and not have to play until Friday during Champ Week.

Here is everything you need to know about Michigan:

Elliot Cadeau transferred in from North Carolina. Many people thought this move did not make sense because he seemed very similar to the Wolverine's lead guard Tre Donaldson last season. Cadeau has silenced the haters this season, as he is a big part in Michigan's success. The big question in the offseason was whether or not he could improve his jump shot. It was a flaw in his two years in Chapel Hill, but it has become a strength of his this year. He is hitting at a 39% clip and can't be left open. Cadeau sees the floor well and is a good passer. He is not as quick as some of the guards that Illinois has struggled with, so I think Illinois should at least feel okay about this matchup.

Nimari Burnett is in his 6th year in college. He was actually teammates with Coleman Hawkins in high school. Burnett provides experience, shooting, and steadiness. He is probably not going to explode for 30 points, but he can impact winning at a high level.

Yaxel Lendeborg is Michigan's best player and the potential Big Ten Player of the Year. I think Keaton Wagler is the favorite currently, but if Michigan goes on to win the conference by 3 games, I don't know how you could justify not giving Lendeborg the award. His stats don't pop off the screen, but that is because of the depth Michigan has. Lendeborg is one of the nation's best two-way players. He could pose some serious nightmares for the Illini. I think you would want Kylan Boswell on him. Boswell has done well in matchups where he is guarding guys who are 6'9 or taller like Lendebord. Last year, Danny Wolf got locked up by Boswell, so maybe he can do it again. If not Boswell, I think Ben Humrichous is the best fit for Illinois to throw at Yaxel. Not only is guarding him an issue, but Lendeborg is a threat on defense. He is an incredible defender with so much versatility. He does about everything to help Michigan be one of the best teams and defenses in the country.

Morez Johnson Jr. is doing everything he did well at Illinois, but just even better now. He still plays with a high motor and will fight for every rebound. Morez is still a good scorer down low and an athletic freak. His most notable improvement has been defensively. He can guard in space better and makes the frontcourt of him, Lendeborg, and Aday Mara special.

Aday Mara comes in from UCLA, and I don't know how Cronin barley played him last season. At 7'3 Mara's length is a sight to behold. He is one of the best rim protectors in the country. Credit to Dusty May for bringing the best out of him. I wish he played somewhere else because he is so fun to watch. Anytime he is near the rim, things go well for Michigan. Luckily for Illinois that may actually work in their favor. Having five shooters on the court will force Mara to go out in space and leave the paint. When Mara can just camp in the paint, teams can't score. I don't think that's going to be a problem for Illinois.

Off the bench, there isn't much of a drop off. It's pretty impressive I must add. If I were given a bracket right now, Michigan would probably be the team I have winning it all, and their depth is why.

LJ Cason committed to Dusty May when he was still at Florida Atlantic and followed May to Michigan. Cason has emerged in the last few weeks. If Cadeau is struggling, Dusty can just sub in another good point guard at the snap of a finger. In their last 7 games, Cason has reached double figures 5 times and provided a spark off the bench.

Oh that's right, Michigan also has a 5-star guard sitting on the bench as well. Trey McKenney is probably the most underrated freshman in the country. McKenney does not get the love like a lot of the freshmen are getting, and I am not even saying he should. McKenney is just on a really good team, so his numbers are not going to match those of lottery picks this year. All I am saying is don't be surprised if Dusty has a future All-American on his bench. McKenney has one of the purest shooting strokes you will ever see. I promise every time he releases the ball; you will be thinking that it's going in, and most of the time, you'll be correct.

Remember Roddy Gayle Jr? Yeah, the former Buckeye who averaged 14 points a game as sophomore is Michigan's 8th man. Michigan's final piece of the rotation is Will Tschetter. He is the only Juwan Howard addition that is still on the roster. He does not play that much, and that is insane considering he could probably start on many high major teams. He just happens to be sitting behind an elite front court.

As a team, Michigan does so many things well. They love to get out and run. If you blink, they're gone. Illinois has to slow the game down and keep Michigan from getting out in transition. Michigan has not shown nearly any weaknesses. The one they did against Wisconsin could be explouted by Illinois though. Wisconsin had five shooters on the court, and it took away Michigan's dominance in the paint by forcing them to play out in space. This is going to require Illinois to hit some shots, but Illinois is built really well to score on a team that has not been scored on often. Wisconsin went 15-33 from three in their win over Michigan, and I would expect Illinois to do something similar if they were to win.

A key to victory really falls into offensive rebounding and keeping Michigan out of transition, which go hand in hand. Dusty May said that the rebounding battle will be "feudal warfare", and I don't think he's wrong. Michigan's offense is less of a threat when they are forced to play in the half court. Attacking the offensive glass is the key for Illinois in stopping Michigan from running. You can't look at it from the other side and say Michigan getting out and running will prevent Illinois from rebounding. If Michigan wants to get out in transition, they have to do the work on the defensive glass. If Illinois can get around 15 offensive rebounds, I like their chances.

Illinois has to make shots. I already covered why I think the open looks will be there, but they have to hit them. This goes along with fatigue. Illinois went 3 for 25 from three after halftime in their loss against UCLA. I credit that to tired legs. Nearly every shot came up short. Michigan is going to try and wear Illinois down, and it's important that fatigue does not cause those late jumpers to fall short. If Illinois can hit 35% or higher from three, they have a good chance of winning.

Prediction:

I correctly predicted Illinois to stumble against UCLA. Blowing a 23-point lead and then letting Donovan Dent go 94-feet for the win was not how I expected Illinois to lose, but I called it, nonetheless. I also said that I was going to pick Illinois to beat Michigan in response. I am sticking with my word. I think Illinois' offense matches up well with one of the elite defenses in the country. I think having the 6 days off will end up being a huge benefit for the Illini. It's going to be the loudest the State Farm Center has been since the 2022 Iowa game at least. I think everything is setting up for a special night in Champaign. It's not going to be easy, but I am taking Illinois to win.

Give me Illinois 86-84 on a Keaton Wagler game-winner over the outstretched arms of Morez Johnson Jr. as the Illini exercise some late game demons and pick up a marquee win.

It's the Keaton Wagler game