Pregame Guide and Prediction: #11 Illinois @ #4 Purdue

We have a top 15 showdown on a Saturday afternoon in late January. It doesn't get much better than this. Conference season has been in full swing, and teams are starting to find themselves in the pecking order. Illinois and Purdue are both 7-1 in league play, and they do not want to fall two games behind 8-0 Nebraska. This is Illinois' biggest test in conference play thus far as not many teams walk out of Mackey Arena victorious. Missing Kylan Boswell, Illinois is trying to get by and keep their March resume elite. A win on Saturday would do wonders for the Illini's March resume and keep them in the thick of the Big Ten title race.

The Illini enter winners of 8 straight, while Purdue is coming off a loss in Pauley Pavilion to UCLA. Purdue hasn't been playing their best basketball in a minute, so they are looking to get back on track at home against a top 15 team.

Here is everything you need to know about the Boilermakers:

Purdue is led by Braden Smith, one of the best point guards in Big Ten history. He is averaging 14.5 ppg and 9.1 apg. Smith has already become the all-time assist leader in the conference and could become the all-time leader in NCAA history if Purdue goes on an extended March run. Braden is undersized at the point guard position, but that doesn't stop him from tearing defenses apart. There isn't a single pass that Braden can't make. He is the best floor general in college basketball. The pick-and-roll is where Braden thrives the most, so Andrej Stojakovic or whoever is on Braden will have to be ready to get through screens. Braden loves to get to a midrange pull-up, and the Illini defense baits teams into doing so. I would expect Braden to get a lot of clean looks against Illinois' drop coverage. It's also worth mentioning that it's now widely known Braden is playing despite being injured. You might notice him limping slightly at times, but it hasn't significantly impacted his performance overall.

Alongside Braden in the backcourt, Purdue has Fletcher Loyer. The senior from Fort Wayne was former high school teammates with Luke Goode. Like Goode, Loyer is known as a catch-and-shoot threat and won't do much of anything else. He can occasionally put the ball on the deck, but he won't do it often. Loyer has been in a real slump as of late. Many Purdue fans on social media are not pleased with how he has been playing. Over his last 8 games, he is shooting just 25% from 3. It's only a matter of time before he gets out of this slump, so Illinois still can't let him get space to get a shot off.

CJ Cox is the final member in the starting backcourt. Cox is having a great year and is an excellent role player. His shooting splits are currently 50/44/92. He does a little bit of everything for Purdue. The sophomore takes great care of the ball and doesn't seem to make mistakes. I think he has a similar impact on Purdue as Jake Davis does for Illinois, but he is just a more solid all-around player.

At the four, the Boilermakers have Trey Kaufmann-Renn. TKR has taken a step back this season in production. It is partly because of Oscar Cluff at the five, but TKR's game has seemed to be off for a while too. He has seemed disinterested and there seems to be a lack of focus/effort. In Purdue's game against Iowa, TKR jogged back during a one-on-one fast break for Iowa when he was the one defender. It has been strange. He was hurt at the beginning of the season, and from pure speculation, I believe that the injury is still lingering. Kaufmann-Renn averaged 20 ppg last season, and that has dropped to just 12.5 this season. At his best, TKR is a traditional post scorer with some good vision. He is known for his excessively long floaters from the free throw line, so I would anticipate seeing some of those drop for Purdue. At 6'9, Kaufmann-Renn is a phenomenal rebounder.

Starting at center is Purdue's big transfer portal acquisition. Bringing over Oscar Cluff from South Dakota State has been great for both Purdue and Cluff. The All-Summit honoree from a season ago has made his mark in West Lafayette. He is known for being a dominant rebounder and a great defender in the post. Luckily for Illinois, their bigs will space the floor, so Cluff and TKR will be challenged to guard in space more than they have all year.

On the bench, Purdue goes 4 deep. Omer Mayer, Gicarri Harris, Jack Benter, and Daniel Jacobson all see around 15 minutes a night.

As a team, Purdue has a lot of similarities to Illinois. They are phenomenal on the glass, they don't turn it over, they don't foul, they shoot it well, and they play at a slower tempo. These are the two best offenses in the country, and the defenses are both well above average. It's going to take an all-out effort to beat Purdue, and here is what I think needs to happen to do so:

Illinois has to win the rebounding battle. The Illini are one of the best teams in the country at getting their own misses back. It is the catalyst of the current number 1 offensive efficiency ranking. Illinois has not faced a team who can match them on the glass like Purdue yet. It is imperative that Illinois wins this margin.

Andrej Stojakovic needs to be at his best once again. Purdue does not have anyone to throw at him defensively. Stojakovic will have a size advantage on whoever is guarding him. Andrej will get many chances to score on straight-line drives, so he has to be ready to convert. On defense, Andrej will be tasked with guarding All-American point guard Braden Smith. He is going to have to use his length to bother Smith enough.

Illinois' bigs have to be ready to hit shots. Illinois needs to space the floor and draw TKR and Cluff out of the paint. Tomislav Ivisic in particular will get many pick-and-pop opportunities, so he has to knock some shots down for Illinois. UCLA's Tyler Bilodeau was able to knock down 4 3's including the game-winner because of his ability to stretch the floor, and Tomi should be able to do the same.

Prediction:

I think we will see a lower number of possessions, but a high amount of scoring. I think both offenses will be able to score at ease against each other's defenses. I do not like that Purdue is in a get-right spot following a loss in front of a rowdy Mackey crowd on a Saturday. I have a hard time believing Illinois will be able to get enough stops late without Kylan to pick up their best win of the season.

I'll take Purdue to win 80-74.

If Illinois were to win, I think it's the Tomislav Ivisic game.