Pregame Guide and Prediction: #11 Illinois vs Oregon

March has arrived and the regular season is coming to an end. In just under two weeks, Illinois is going to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. The Illini ended February in a rut. They are coming in losers of four of their last six games. Three of them came in overtime heartbreakers, and the last one was just pure domination from the opponent. With a new month underway, Illinois is looking for some “get right” games as they head into the postseason. With two Quad 3 games remaining, there’s little room for error for the Illini. A loss could damage their NCAA Tournament resume. While Michigan already eliminated any Big Ten title implications, seeding is still on the line. A misstep could drop the Illini all the way to a 4-seed, while a win would keep them on the cusp of the 2/3 line. I am sure if you browse Illini Twitter, someone will joke that this is “the biggest game of the Brad Underwood era” I won't go that far, but the stakes are real as a loss would essentially put Illinois into free fall. The Illini need to recapture their mojo, and it starts with this matchup against Oregon on senior night for Kylan Boswell, Ben Humrichous and AJ Redd.

Oregon came into the season with some high hopes. Fresh off earning a 5 seed last season, the Ducks returned their two best players. Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle were phenomenal. Oregon had questions surrounding the rest of the roster, but Shelstad and Bittle were good enough to hide those questions in the preseason polls. Oregon was the second team left out of the preseason AP Poll, and they were 5th in the Big Ten preseason poll right behind Illinois. Today, Oregon is 11-18. To say that this season has been a disaster would be an understatement. Nearly everything in and out of their control has gone wrong.

Jackson Shelstad broke his hand a month before the season was about to begin. He missed their opening game of the season, and Oregon needed a game winning layup to survive against Hawaii. Shelstad came back for the next 12 games, but the team still struggled. Oregon was just 7-6 when it was announced that Shelstad would miss the remainder of the season. To make matters worse Nate Bittle missed 7 games in late January and early February. Bittle returned against Purdue and ever since he's been healthy and playing at a high level.

While Oregon has had an underwhelming season, they have been playing some better ball as of late. They are coming off a heartbreaking loss at the buzzer from Nick Martinelli and Northwestern, but before that they popped USC's NCAA Tournament bubble and upset Wisconsin. So, while the 11-18 record is bad, they are capable of competing with and beating some good teams. I believe that playing without any pressure is a real advantage. Nate Bittle wants to end his final games in college on a high note. Dana Altman teams are known for their ability to play their best basketball in March. If Illinois plays with the lack of intensity and "nastiness" that Underwood referred to after the Michigan game, Oregon seriously could stay in the game and maybe even win.

Oregon's biggest strength lies in their frontcourt. Nate Bittle has had an excellent career at one stop, and it's sad to see him not have a team around him good enough to win many games. Bittle is a 7'0 who fits the profile of centers that Illinois struggles to guard. He is no knockdown shooter, but Bittle stretches the floor well enough. He has shot 33% from beyond the arc his last four seasons. Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic have to be ready to defend for 40 minutes. Even though Bittle is a 17 point per game scorer, his biggest impact comes on defense. Named to the Big Ten All-Defensive team last season, Bittle moves well at his size and is a great shot blocker.

Kwame Evans Jr is another player in Oregon's frontcourt that has the profile of someone Illinois struggles to guard. Evans is 6'10 but incredibly athletic. In his third season in Euguene, he was expected to a leap. This season he is averaging 13 ppg. Evans is most known for his versatility. He can guard multiple positions and disrupt many things for Illinois, who have struggled against good athletes as of late.

Evans is not the only good athlete in the front court for Oregon. Sean Stewart is a guy who has jumped around three places in as many seasons. He began his career at Duke, transferred to Ohio State last year, and now is at Oregon. Stewart is a 6'9 forward with great athleticism. He is a good rebounder. Overall, he is not skilled as Kwame Evans Jr. Stewart is a complete non-threat shooting. He has only attempted one three all season, which he ironically did make. Stewart has not developed much of an offensive game, but his high-flying ability could cause Illinois trouble.

The Oregon backcourt has been asked to much more than they originally thought. Shelstad's injury has put some guys in positions that they probably were not ready for. Drew Carter has gotten the starts as of late. He is a senior from Portland. Before this season, he had attempted 7 field goals in his career. He won't be asked to do any scoring for Oregon. He is mainly there to just play run the offense for a little before Wei Lin checks in.

Takai Simpkins is Oregon's best scorer in the backcourt. The 6'4 Elon transfer can light it up from deep. Oregon does not have many capable scorers, so if the Illini contain him, they should feel pretty good.

Wei Lin comes off the bench, but he will get more minutes than Drew Carter. He is an inconsistent scorer, but if you catch him on a good night, he can drop 20. Jamari Phillips and Dezdrick Lindsay round out the rotation.

As a team, Oregon is better defensively. Shelstad's injury really hurt their offensive firepower as he was a guy who could a bucket anywhere and anytime. Since Nate Bittle returned to the lineup, Oregon ranks 28th in defensive efficiency according to Bart Torvik. Oregon's frontcourt is more than capable of matching up with Illinois'. If there was anything to scare you about Oregon's offense, it would be the fact they struggle with turnovers, but Illinois is 365th out of 365 teams in defensive turnover rate. Oregon is also solid on the offensive glass, so the Ivisic twins must get more than 4 rebounds combined.

As long as Illinois is focused, rebounds, takes good shots, and plays hard, Oregon will have a tough time keeping up with Illinois. It has been a rough last 3 halves for Illinois on both sides of the ball. This is a good opportunity for Illinois to get back into form. Brad Underwood said Illinois has to simplify the defense. I hope this means we see less switching when it's not necessary. I hope Illinois starts playing like they did in January again.

Prediction:

I think Illinois will get back on track. Last season, when all hope was lost after the massacre in Madison Square Garden against Duke, Illinois responded with wins over Iowa, Michigan, and Purdue. I don't think Illinois is just going to collapse after some setbacks. It's also important to note that despite Illinois' recent struggles, they are still in a good position to earn a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Illinois should come out with some fire because this game is very important to keep those hopes alive. It's time to reset everything and focus on getting right for the postseason. It's senior night, and I don't see how Illinois drops another game at home. I like Illinois to bounce back with a comfortable win and protect home court one final time this season

I'll take Illinois to win 82-66

It's the Kylan Boswell game