Pregame Guide and Prediction: #13 Illinois @ Northwestern

Illinois basketball is almost back once again with a short turnaround, as Big Ten play is finally in full swing. The Illini are 13-3 and 4-1 in conference play as they head up I-57 North to face Northwestern. The Wildcats have had a disappointing season up to this point. They enter this one 8-8 and 0-5 in conference play. The frustrating part for Northwestern is that they have been competitive in all 8 losses. 7 of the 8 losses have been by single digits, and their lone double-digit loss was to Wisconsin by 12. This is a team that is better than their record and seems due for a win soon. The metrics say this is a top 65 team, which usually means they are a bubble-quality team, but the Wildcats' results have not shown that yet.

The Illinois-Northwestern rivalry has been dominated by Illinois historically. The Illini are 144-46 all-time against Northwestern. With that said, Chris Collins and the Wildcats have made this rivalry a whole lot more competitive recently. Illinois has lost 3 straight at Welsh-Ryan Arena. This game always seems to go down to the wire, and they have been fun to watch. Illinois will have to step up if they want to leave Evanston with a win for the first time in 4 years, so let's break it down.

Here is what you need to know about the 2025-2026 Northwestern Wildcats:

Northwestern kind of has a similar roster construction to the team the Illini just beat, Iowa. Nick Martinelli is a name all Illini and Big Ten fans are aware of by now and for good reason. He currently leads the country in scoring at 24.1 ppg. He is everything for Northwestern just like Bennett Stirtz is for Iowa. Martinelli is obviously a different player than Stirtz. Nick thrives when his back is to the basket and is a great scorer through physicality. The lefty loves a nice baby hook over his right shoulder. Martinelli has expanded his game on the perimeter as well. He is shooting 52% from three so teams can no longer take their chances and let him fire wide open shots beyond the three-point line. I am curious to see who the Illini throw on him on defense. I'd imagine it will be done by committee between four Illini: Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic, Kylan Boswell, and Ben Humrichous. Outside of Martinelli, the Wildcats do not have anyone Illinois should be panicking about. Coach Chris Collins has been adjusting his rotations around and has yet to find one he wants to stick with. My favorite player outside of Martinelli is their point guard, Jayden Reid. The USF transfer is a small guard, but he has very good court vision and is leading the team in assists at 5.6 apg. Arrinten Page is another name Illini fans should be aware of. At his third school in three years, Page has finally been able to showcase his skill. I first noticed him when the Wildcats played Virginia in a November MTE. Page reminded me of Derik Queen. He is a phenomenal athlete who can finish well at the rim. His biggest strength is his ability to block shots. Illinois will have to go up strong around the rim and not let Page make his presence felt.

As I previously mentioned, Northwestern is better than their record shows. The Wildcats do a few things very well. Northwestern currently leads the country in turnover rate. They do a great job taking care of the ball. Illinois is currently a bottom 5 team in the country in forcing turnovers, so I wouldn't expect many Northwestern turnovers. The Wildcats are also top 20 nationally in three-point defense. Illinois can't get complacent and have to be selective on shots outside the paint.

The Wildcats also have some weaknesses. They are not good on the glass, both offensively and defensively. The Illini have to attack the glass to create second-chance opportunities, something the Illini have excelled at this year. The size of Illinois should be prevalent tomorrow night. Northwestern is not a great shooting team. They also do not take many threes. I want to see Illinois try and force them to take as many shots outside the paint as possible. I believe Illinois should double-team Martinelli in the post, compelling him to find open shooters and challenging those shooters to defeat them. Northwestern has not shown the ability to beat teams with their shooting, and Illinois should further put that to the test.

Prediction:

Big Ten road wins are always earned, not given. Illinois will not be able to stroll into Evanston, play their "C" game, and escape with a win. It will take an all-out effort and focus to get out of Evanston with a win for the first time in 4 years. Northwestern has been competitive in every game they've played in this year, and I don't expect this one to be any different. I think this game will be back-and-forth all night with no team leading by more than 10. This Illini team has really shown a new level of connectedness and poise when they need it most. I think Illinois makes enough plays late on the glass to eke out a tough win over a well-coached team. These are the type of games that decide Big Ten Titles, and I think Illinois is truly in the mix for one.

I'll take Illinois to win 79-73 and move to 5-1 in the Big Ten.

It's the David Mirkovic game.