Pregame Guide and Prediction: #13 Illinois vs Minnesota

#13 Illinois is going for their 7th straight win as a frisky Minnesota team is in town for an 11 a.m. tip on Saturday. The Illini enter this one 14-3 (5-1), and the Gophers enter 10-7 (3-3).

Illinois is coming off a solid road win against Northwestern, which will teeter between quads 1 and 2 status all year long. Minnesota is coming off gut-wrenching loss to Wisconsin at the buzzer, so they'll be looking to get back on track and move on.

In his first year as the Minnesota head coach, Niko Medved has exceeded expectations with this Minnesota team. The Gophers were picked to finish 16th in the Big Ten preseason poll, and so far, they have looked like they will compete for a spot in the middle of the pack. Minnesota began the year with some disappointing losses to strong mid-major programs, which will negatively impact their March resume. But since, they quietly picked up nice wins against Indiana and Iowa. They have dropped their last two, however, in close games. Minnesota is similar to Northwestern in the sense that despite their record, you can count on them to give anyone a game.

Here is what you need to know about them:

This Minnesota team has one of the smallest rotations of any team in the country. Minnesota runs a 7-man rotation, so depth is definitely not one of their strengths. Even the seventh man does not see many minutes unless they are in foul trouble. The Gophers are led by senior wing Cade Tyson. Beginning his career at Belmont, Tyson dominated in the Missouri Valley Conference. He was the MVC freshman of the year in 2023, and in 2024 was named to the all-MVC team as a sophomore. Tyson entered the portal and was highly sought after by all the big names. North Carolina landed him, but it just did not click. After a rough season where he played sparingly, Tyson found a new home at the high-major level so he could get a fresh start. I would say his decision to join Medved was a good one. Cade Tyson is averaging 21 ppg with efficient shooting splits. He is known for his prolific scoring ability, so it's cool to see him find a place where he can display it in the Big Ten. Tyson is a dangerous scorer due to his ability to shoot from beyond the arc. He can take a high volume of triples, has great form, and the size to shoot over defenders. If given rhythm or open looks, he will convert and punish the defense. He will have to give Kylan Boswell, Andrej Stojakovic, and any Illini tasked with guarding him troubles if Minnesota wants to win.

While the depth in the supporting cast isn't there, the ones who do play are just real solid players. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson is Cade Tyson's right-hand man. Crocker-Johnson is a strong, versatile forward who scores inside, rebounds with physicality, and can stretch the floor by knocking down an occasional three. He likes to catch the ball at the elbow and make a move towards the rim. He’s a good, multi-position defender in the frontcourt. Crocker-Johnson followed Medved from Colorado State to Minnesota, so he is just a guy who gets what Medved wants and executes.

The two guards Minnesota starts are Langston Reynolds and Isaac Asuma. Langston Reynolds is a physical, athletic 6’4 guard who emerged as a high-level scorer and efficient offensive weapon during his time at Northern Colorado before transferring to Minnesota. He can get downhill and finish around the rim. He is not a three-point threat as he has only gone 3-16 this season. Issac Asuma is the more complete player. Standing at 6’3, the sophomore from Cherry, MN came off the bench for Minnesota last season and decided to stay with the coaching change. This season, he has embraced a larger role. He manages the offense and sets up his teammates well. Asuma’s combination of scoring, facilitating, and reliable decision-making positions him as a foundational guard for Minnesota’s backcourt.

Bobby Durkin is a name that Illini fans may be aware of, as he is from Glen Ellyn, Illinois and won a state championship in the State Farm Center. Durkin rounds out the starting 5 for the Gophers. Bobby Durkin is a 6’7″ forward/wing with size and shooting who transferred to Minnesota after two productive seasons at Davidson. All he really does at Minnesota is space the floor and take threes. Minnesota only plays two people on the bench, and neither make a huge impact.

As a team, Minnesota doesn't do anything exceptionally well or exceptionally poor. They're just mid, and I am not saying it in a bad way. The Gophers are good at getting to foul line, but they only make 69% of their attempts. They are also good at getting offensive rebounds, which is surprising because their tallest rotational player is 6'8. Minnesota's biggest weakness is their depth. It's just incredibly hard to win with that small of a rotation. They do play at one of the slowest tempos in the country to help combat it. Overall, it's a well-coached solid Big Ten team who can compete with anyone in the conference. Illinois can't completely sleepwalk through this one if they want to win like they can against the absoulute bottom of the conference at home.

Now that you know all that you need know about the team, here are the keys to victory for the Illini:

I think Illinois needs to speed this game up a little bit. Illinois isn't playing as fast as they have in years past, but I would like to see them get running just a little bit more. Minnesota does not have the depth to play in a faster-paced game, so I would like to see Illinois push it in transition at the right moments. This does not mean they should be running out of control without a purpose.

This is going to be key for Illinois in many games: they need to take advantage of their size. Illinois needs to attack the rim for a couple of reasons. the first is because Minnesota does not have great rim protection. Secondly, getting Minnesota into foul trouble and forcing them to expand their rotation could help the Illini. Defensively, I think Zvonimir Ivisic should feast under the rim. I would expect to see him block a couple of shots and alter many others.

Illinois needs to be awake early. The 11 a.m. tip has not treated the Illini well in the past. Illinois did get a win at 11 a.m. against Iowa last week, but this one will be played in a letdown spot without students to help create a great environment. The State Farm Center will be quieter than normal, so the team will have to create their own energy.

Prediction:

I think Minnesota will be ready to play early, looking to get right after suffering consecutive heartbreaking losses. It wouldn't surprise me if Illinois is losing in the first half after a rough start. I think Illinois' depth and strength in numbers will eventually allow them to pull away in the second half.

I'll take Illinois to win 76-63

It's the Zvonimir Ivisic game