Pregame Guide and Prediction: #16 Illinois @ #19 Iowa

Who needs the NFL Playoffs? #16 Illinois is in Iowa City for a top 20 showdown against Iowa for an 11 a.m. tip tomorrow. For Illinois, it is a chance to extend their win streak to 5 and really get rolling in conference play. For Iowa, it is a chance to pick up a coveted Quad 1 home win, an opportunity that does not present itself often.

Last Games:

12-3 (3-1) Illinois is coming off a home win against Rutgers 81-55. 12-3 (2-2) Iowa is coming off a loss to Minnesota 70-67 at the Barn after a near ferocious second-half comeback.

Illinois and Iowa enter a new chapter of the rivalry. Last season, Illinois sent Fran McCaffery to his alma mater, Penn, after a 106-94 game which was a perfect display of the Fran McCaffery experience in one game. In the 172nd edition of the game this year, Iowa is led by a new head coach, Ben McCollum. McCollum has achieved success at every previous stop, and he has Iowa off to a nice start this season. The Hawkeyes have gone from playing shootouts every night to low-scoring rock fights. The reduction in the number of possessions has increased the significance of each possession and point.

Illinois has also started to shy away from the run-and-gun tempo they started the season with. That is in large part since Keaton Wagler asserted himself not only as one of the best freshmen but one of the best players in the country. Illinois has been more successful when letting Wagler take the reins of the offense in the half-court and slow the game down. According to Bart Torvik, Illinois is number 339 in the country in adjusted tempo since the Tennessee game last month. This is a complete philosophical change from previous seasons, so the "Brad can't coach" crowd should pay attention. Iowa is 342nd in adjusted tempo for the entire season. It is going to be a low-possession game tomorrow. Every point will matter.

If Illinois wants to escape Iowa City victorious, taking care of the ball will be the number 1 priority. Iowa's defense feasts on teams who do not take care of the ball. Ranking in the top 5 in defensive turnover percentage, Iowa will simply make Illinois pay for sloppy play. The good news for Illinois is that taking care of the ball has been one of their biggest strengths. That is a common theme in this game. It consists of a lot of strength vs. strength. It will be fun to watch whose strength can outmatch the opponent's strength.

I believe Illinois has to attack the rim at will and not settle for threes. Iowa is one of the elite three-point defenses. They have held teams to 29.9% from three, which is top 35 in the country. I do not see the path for an Illini victory if they launch threes at an unheralded rate. Every offensive possession needs to see a paint touch for the Illini. Illinois needs to see Kylan Boswell and Andrej Stojakovic ready to attack the rim.

Defensively, the Illini have to contain Bennett Stirtz. Following Ben McCollum from Drake and Northwest Missouri State, Stirtz is everything for this Iowa offense. Both as a scorer and a facilitator, he runs the Iowa offense. He is the Hawkeyes' only double-digit scorer. All Illinois fans know that one of the biggest criticisms that Brad Underwood-coached teams receive is that they let one guy go off. We have already seen it this season with Bruce Thornton at Ohio State and Pryce Sandfort at Nebraska. Letting Stirtz get hot is a dangerous game for Illinois. I want to see Stirtz have to work for anything he gets. If the Illini neutralize him, it would be difficult for any other Hawkeye to beat you.

Prediction: This game will be low scoring, perhaps to pay homage to the late Big Ten West. I truly think Illinois has turned the corner this last month and is starting to play their best basketball. Winning on the road is never easy, but having a point guard as steady as Keaton Wagler helps tremendously. I have been going back and forth on this pick, but I'm officially locking it in: Give me Illinois 65-62.

It's the Andrej Stojakovic game.