Pregame Guide and Prediction: #16 Illinois vs Rutgers

#16 Illinois 11-3 (2-1) hosts Rutgers 8-7 (1-3) on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. CST at the State Farm Center. The game will be aired on the Big Ten Network.

Illinois and Rutgers have had very different seasons up until this point. The Illini have taken care of all their games against inferior opponents, while adding some nice resume building wins along the way. Rutgers, on the other hand, have struggled all season. After beginning with a 4-0 record in buy games, the Scarlet Knights lost their subsequent buy game to Central Connecticut State. Since then, it has been a downhill journey. Rutgers went to Las Vegas for the PlayersEra Invitational, where they finished 1-2, securing their only victory against UNLV. The Big Ten schedule was not in their favor, as their first two conference games in December were against preseason conference favorite Purdue and then a Michigan team who currently has the highest adjusted efficiency margin in KenPom history in. Rutgers fell to 7-7 and 0-3 in conference play before their most recent outing against Oregon. Rutgers won an overtime thriller against the Ducks, albeit Oregon is having their own disastrous start to the season. Tariq Francis, Rutgers' leading scorer, had himself a night with a game high 30 points on an efficient 10-16 from the field. Rutgers started the game slow and let Oregon control the entire first half. After trailing by 8 at half, the Scarlet Knights started the second half on a 19-8 run and asserted themselves. Rutgers found a way to win by getting to the free throw line and more importantly making the free throws. The Scarlet Knights went 30-34 from the line.

Illinois is heavy favorites on Thursday night against Rutgers. Coach Underwood and the Illini are looking to extend their win streak to 4 games and get their get back after losing to Rutgers in their lone matchup last season. This game is what I consider the worst game for a fan to watch. It is the dreaded home conference Quad 4 game. A loss in this one for the Illini would do considerable damage to their March resume, while a win will do absolutely nothing to help it. In my opinion the main key in this game is to come out with energy. I get it, no one has Rutgers circled on their calendar as a game they can't wait to play. There are no students on campus, so it will be a sleepy crowd. There are a whole lot of things that make this game less desirable to play compared to others. That cannot matter when you have a team with Big Ten Title aspirations. Illinois simply has to come out with some intensity and build an early lead. The longer you let teams like this hang in there, all it takes is a few shots to fall before you are on edge and in danger of getting upset. Illinois lone home loss this season was because they dug themselves a hole too big to climb out of against Nebraska. Defensive breakdowns and communication errors early set the tone and allowed Nebraska to get whatever they wanted whenever they wanted. Illinois has to stay focused and sharp in the first 10 minutes to establish dominance against one of the worst teams in the conference.

Ideally, Illinois can get out to a big lead in this one so we can see some experimentation from Underwood and this staff. While I wouldn't say Illinois got exposed on Saturday against Penn State, there was a glaring difference on the offensive production with freshman Keaton Wagler on and off the court. Illinois' offense looked sluggish and sloppy when Wagler was off the court due to foul trouble. No offense to Penn State, but in a scenario like that against the top half of the conference, teams will make the Illini pay if they do not have their star guard on the court. I would like to see if Illinois can find a way to get Tomislav Ivisic going offensively. Last season, Tomi was the hub of the Illini offense. The Illini were consistently getting the ball to Tomi in the post and letting him distribute to cutters. Illinois was also at their best when they put Tomi in pick and pop situations. I don't know what has happened this season, but the big man's production has fallen off a cliff in games against high major opponents. At first, I thought it was simply that he was rusty coming off the tonsillectomy surgery, but it is January now. Something has to change if Illinois wants to reach their ceiling. Tomislav has to return to the level of play he had last season, and I think establishing an early lead can allow for Illinois try some new things out to get Tomi in a nice rhythm. Illinois will need Tomislav later this season.

Prediction: I think Illinois will still have a sour taste in their mouth from their last home conference game going so poorly. I expect the Illini to get out to an early lead and dominate on the glass against a smaller Rutgers team. I will take Illinois 89 - 68 to take care of business and build some more momentum before a huge road test in Iowa City on Sunday.

Additionally, for each game, I will choose one player who I believe will perform well and be crucial to the victory. For Thursday's game, my selection is: The Tomislav Ivisic game