Pregame Guide and Prediction: #5 Illinois @ #10 Michigan State

Another weekend has arrived, and Illinois has an opportunity to pick up yet another road win against a top 10 team. The Illini have done it the two previous weekends with their wins over Purdue and Nebraska. Once the Illini received news of Kylan Boswell's injury, fans thought winning just 1 of these 3 games was a tall order. Well, that's the beauty of college basketball. Illinois can go 3 for 3 and increase their Big Ten Title and 1 seed hopes immensely.

Illinois and Michigan State are steering in different directions. Illinois has been rising up the ranks for the last two months. As winners of 12 straight, the Illini might just be the hottest team in the country and show no signs of slowing down. After an 18-2 start, Michigan State has plummeted. A miracle was needed to beat Rutgers to move to 19-2. Since that, they have dropped their last two games against Michigan and Minnesota. Michigan State's season has completely flipped, and this is an excellent opportunity for the Spartans to get back on track and in the thick of the Big Ten race.

Illinois will still be missing Kylan Boswell, but he is expected to return in the coming weeks. Michigan State will also be shorthanded. It was announced that Divine Ugochukwu will be out for the remainder of the season with a foot injury. He was their secondary ball handler behind Jeremy Fears and was the best shooter on the team. His absence will be felt more than you would think just looking at the box score.

Here is everything you need to know about the Spartans:

We'll begin with Jeremy Fears Jr. All Illinois fans are aware of him and his family by now. Illinois recruited the Joliet product heavily out of high school. Illinois also landed a commitment from his younger brother before he decided to reclassify. Even if that doesn't ring a bell, Fears' dirty play has been under scrutiny. The last two games have been really bad. He has tried to trip and injure anyone on the court. I have no reason to think he won't try the same Grayson Allen-esque trips and jabs against the Illini and Keaton Wagler. He is truly one of the dirtiest players in all of college basketball, and there is no hiding it. I don't even think he should be playing after racking up all those dangerous plays in the last two games. I remember when Alan Griffin got suspended for two games after stepping on Purdue's Sasha Stefanovic in an isolated innocent. These little trips and jabs are not coincidental when it happens multiple times a game. The Big Ten should have suspended him, but he wasn't. All he got was Tom Izzo to say he has to grow up. If it continues on Saturday, he should face at least a one game suspension.

Antics aside, Fears is a really good basketball player. He is in contention for Big Ten Player of the Year. Averaging 15 points and 9 assists per game, he has taken the leap many thought he would make. He is a great floor general. He processes the game well and rarely makes mistakes. His jump shot does not pose much of a threat, but he will keep you honest. Fears likes to play some "unethical hoops." He will try to foul bait on every possession. If he catches a defender lacking, he will make them pay. This will be the most interesting dynamic for me. We have quite the immovable object vs unstoppable force action. Will Fears' foul baiting work against the most discipline defense in the country? I can't wait to see. On defense, Fears is one of the best defenders in the country. He is going to make Wagler earn everything, and I think this could be a game where Kylan's absence is felt offensively for Illinois.

Coen Carr is one of the nation's best highflyers. His athleticism is otherworldly. His ability to get out in transition and rise above the rim can change the outlook of the game. Carr's dunks get the Breslin Center rocking. His game is centered around the paint, but he has added the ability to make a three. He does not do it well, but he has made improvement since his freshman year where he did not even attempt a three. Illinois will have to suppress his ability to fly above the rim. I think Zvonimir Ivisic will have to be ready on the help side to alter potential dunks.

Jordan Scott got the start in their last game. Scott is an interesting player. He has started to come alive for Michigan State in the last week. Ugochukwu's injury will give Scott some more playing time. The 6'7 freshman is pretty versatile and can help provide MSU a spark.

Michigan State's frontcourt has some of the more physical players in the country. Jaxon Kohler came into the State Farm Center last season and ruined TSJ night. He had a 23-point double-double and made the Illini pay for leaving him open beyond the arc. He is career progression has actually been fun to watch. It's not often you see someone averaging 3 and 2 points a game as a freshman and sophomore and stick it out with the same program. Jaxon Kohler has gotten much better these last two seasons. He is skilled in the post with amazing footwork. He shot 37% from 3 last season and is currently at 42% this year on 4 attempts a game. His shot is fully developed and now is a threat from deep. He is an excellent rebounder. Kohler is just overall a great Big Ten Player.

Carson Cooper is from the same recruiting class and has also had a similar career arc as Kohler. He has improved every year and is now a good Big Ten center. His shot has not developed so he is strictly a traditional big, Michigan State loves to put him at the top of the key and run some handoffs for their guards. Cooper can slip these to the rim and be a lob threat. Cooper is also a good shot blocker and rebounder. This will be the most physical frontcourt Illinois has faced all season.

Kur Teng is one of Michigan State's better shooters off the bench. Freshman Cam Ward and Samford transfer Trey Fort may see some extended minutes with Ugochukwu out.

Here are the keys to an Illini victory:

Match Michigan State's physicality. The rebounding battle will be a fun one to watch all night. Illinois is number 4 in offensive rebound rate and number 19 in defensive rebound rate. Michigan State is numbers 6 and 1, respectively. It's going to be a brawl on the glass.

Make shots. I know this sounds obvious, but I think Illinois' offense can get some real good looks. Michigan State is going to hard hedge all ball screens Wagler receives, so I expect Illinois to be able to find some open shooters as Michigan State scrambles back. They are 335th in defensive 3-pint rate, meaning they allow a lot of attempts. Also, while playing the best defensive rebounding team in the country, Illinois might not get all the second chances they are usually able to muster. The Illini have to convert on the first try.

Avoid Fear's foul baiting garbage basketball. He is going to try and do anything to get into the heads of the Illini and get some ridiculous foul calls. This offense is not great. They rely on his antics to get some free points. If Illinois stays disciplined, they should get enough stops to win this game. I have no doubt Keaton Wagler will be unfazed, but the Illini frontcourt will have to be able to keep their emotions slightly in check. This feels like a spot where someone in the frontcourt could get a game changing technical foul, so that can't happen. It's funny and earned when you do it in a game up 40 at home like we saw against Northwestern, but something that can't happen Saturday night.

I would like Illinois to run a lot of zone this game. Michigan State is not a good shooting team. It's what is holding them back from being a National Title and Final Four threat. I think it would be wise baiting them into launching threes. If they beat you by hitting threes, you just tip the cap.

Prediction:

I always thought this game was going to be the most getable of the three toughest road tests. After getting swept last season, this game has been on my radar for a while. I think Illinois matches up pretty well with Michigan State. I don't know if I like Illinois having to go up against an Izzo team with their backs up against the wall, but the Illini have shown they can beat teams that are coming off a loss. I have picked against Illinois in their last road tests and have been wrong. I will not make that mistake three times in-a-row.

Give me Illinois 72-68

It's the Ben Humrichous game