Pregame Guide and Prediction: #5 Illinois vs Northwestern

Illinois and Northwestern meet once again. The two met just three weeks ago with Illinois picking up the win 79-68. Welsh Ryan Arena became a house of horrors for Illinois over the last 3 years, but this Illinois team walked in and walked out with a relatively stress-free win. This one will be at the place Northwestern hasn't won since the building was still called Assembly Hall. Illinois will look to reach their 7th straight 20-win regular season with a Hail to the Orange Out (or Paint the Hall Orange) crowd behind them.

On January 14th, Illinois played a pretty poor first half but still held a 5-point lead. I actually remember thinking, "there is no way Northwestern has a chance after they let Illinois off the hook in the first half" Keaton Wagler took over in the second half, similarly to the way he did in Lincoln, and Illinois never looked back despite a Jayden Reid masterclass. That win is currently a quad 1 win as Northwestern is 71st in the NET. This means that Wednesday's game will be a quad 2 contest for Illinois. I'll be quite honest and say that I have no clue how Northwestern is top 75 in the NET. They are basically giving away free quad 1 victories for teams that go to Evanston. I would be surprised if they stay this high in a month, so that is something to monitor. This game is being sandwiched in between two tough road tests, but the Illini have passed the previous tests similar to this, and this should be no different.

Northwestern has the nation's leading scorer still. Nick Martinelli has been excellent, but it goes unnoticed because he isn't on a winning team. Martinelli is going to get his, so as long as Illinois does not allow him to go nuclear, they should be fine. Illinois did a good job on him in round 1, but that was because Kylan Boswell did everything to make sure he would not touch the ball. I think Andrej Stojakovic will draw the assignment with Kylan still out, so he will have to be ready.

Jayden Reid got anything he wanted whenever he wanted the first time around. He finished with a game high 28 points and had me question if Tyson Walker somehow exploited the NCAA's eligibility crisis and made a return for Chris Collins. When Illinois fans talk about the "randoms" who have generational nights against them, this is an example of what they mean. I'm not saying Reid is some awful player, but he should not be dropping 30 again on Wednesday

I think Arrinten Page could have more involvement on offense this time. He is coming off a great game against Washington and maybe Northwestern will look to feed into that.

Overall, this is one of Chris Collins' worst teams he has ever had. The supporting cast around Martinelli has been extremely disappointing. It is February and they still do not have a rotation fully set in stone. I think their last loss against Washington at home is kind of the killer in their season. Maybe the goal of winning in Champaign for the first time since 2013 helps a little, but their season has failed expectations.

Here are the keys to an Illini victory:

Illinois has to dominate the glass. Northwestern is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, but they only had 3 less rebounds in round 1. If Illinois outrebounds Northwestern by 15, this game will not be close.

Avoid the sleepy trap game start. Illinois has been in this position in the last couple of weeks. While neither the Washington nor Maryland games were ever in doubt, both starts were a little slow. I would like to see Illinois assert dominance early and put this game out of reach to set the scene for Saturday night in East Lansing.

Prediction:

I think Illinois has earned enough trust to have fans not fear the trap game let down. This team's focus and ability to move onto the next game has been impressive, and I don't think this will be any different. I think Illinois will dominate on the glass this time, and it will lead to a blowout victory for the home team.

I'll take Illinois to win 86-65.

It's the Andrej Stojakovic game