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Pregame Guide and Prediction: #8 Illinois vs Wisconsin

  • Feb 10
  • 4 min read

The Illini's 12-game winning streak was snapped in East Lansing on Saturday Night in overtime. In a frustrating game that just seemed like Illinois could not hit enough shots and grab rebounds, Illinois was able to stick around. That result is in the past and should be forgotten. Illinois now gets to come home for two games, with the first being against (16-7, 8-4) Wisconsin on Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m.


Wisconsin is coming off a frustrating road loss of their own, as their comeback efforts against Indiana were all for nothing. The Badgers got off to a rough start in November and December. In Big Ten play, they have turned it around and have made their way back into the NCAA Tournament scene. This is a caliber of team Illinois could see in the Round of 32 in over a month. Wisconsin might just have the best win in the country when they beat Michigan in Ann Arbor due to offensive fireworks. This a pretty good Wisconsin team who is capable of beating anyone in the country if things are clicking.


This is the beginning of an interesting four game stretch for Illinois. Illinois played the best of the best or the worst of the worst in the conference. This 4-game stretch will be played against 4 NCAA Tournament hopefuls but are not at the very top of the conference. Illinois can't play a "C" game and expect to win against teams this good. Senior guard Kylan Boswell is expected to a make return during this stretch, but not Tuesday night.


Here is everything you need to know about Wisconsin:


The Wisconsin backcourt is everything for the Badgers. The combo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are as good as any backcourt duo in the country. Nick Boyd has final four experience with the '23 FAU team. He transferred to San Diego State where he became an All-MWC selection. In his redshirt senior season Boyd's game has elevated in the Big Ten. This season Boyd is averaging 20 points per game on efficient shooting splits. Boyd is a great three-level scorer as a career 37% shooter from deep. Boyd's ability to dissect a defense and get into the lane is remarkable


John Blackwell, son of former Illini Glynn Blackwell, has developed all three seasons in Madison. What started as a key bench guy his freshman season has turned into one of the best guards in the conference the last two seasons. Blackwell is a strong, physical guard who brings toughness, downhill scoring and experience. Straight line driving is his first option, but he is also a good shooter at 37% from three this season. According to Bart Torvik, he has not shot it well in games against top 50 opponents as he is sitting at 29%. Regardless, he can knock those down at any time. This backcourt will be a tough cover for Illinois without Kylan Boswell


Andrew Rohde took the Summit League by storm his freshman season. I could not find what his ranking was coming out of high school, but his only high-major offer was DePaul. In his freshman year of high school, Rohde was just 5'10. Today he is standing at 6'6. Rohde spent the last two seasons at Virginia and is now in Madison. The Senior grew up just an hour away for campus, so it's only fitting he ends his career here. After a great shooting season last year, Rohde's long ball has taken a drop. He is a 32% three-point shooter, but his release and shooting motion says otherwise. He is a high energy player who can impact a game in an instant with hustle plays.


Aleksas Bieliauskas starts at the 4. The freshman from Lithuania only plays around 18 minutes a game. When he is on the court, he is a threat to stretch the floor. In Wisconsin's upset of Michigan, Beiliauskas hit 5 threes and was a major reason why Michigan suffered their only loss to date.


Nolan Winter is one of Greg Gard's best finds. The former three star from Minnesota has started every game since the beginning of last season. He leads the team in rebounding at 8 per game and third in points with 14. Winter is another stretch big for Wisconsin so that will create an interesting dynamic. Both teams do not have a complete non-threat from 3, especially in the frontcourt. His rim protection skills have gotten better this season. Winter is a well above average Big Ten big man, and the leader of this Wisconsin frontcourt.


Off the bench, Wisconsin can go 4 deep. Jack Janicki, Braeden Carrington and Austin Rapp take up most of the bench minutes. Spot minutes can sometimes be seen by Will Garlock. Austin Rapp missed last game due to illness, so we will see if he returns.


Keys to an Illini victory:


We saw Illinois get outworked on the glass last weekend for the first time in a while. Illinois can't give any second chances to an awful offensive rebounding team.


Contain Boyd and Blackwell. Wisconsin lacks depth. it is highly unlikely someone else on this team beats Illinois. Andrej Stojakovic will be guarding one of them. I believe Keaton Wagler will be on the other. Illinois probably won't shut them down, but if they can keep them under 40 points combined, I feel good about Illinois' chances


Slow the tempo down. A big reason Illinois lost on Saturday was their inability to stop fastbreaks. Michigan State outscored Illinois 22-0 in that regard. Wisconsin likes to play a faster game. The difference is that Wisconsin' half-court defense is not even in the same stratosphere as MSU's. Illinois should get great looks all night, and hopefully they aren't as cold as they were on Saturday.


Prediction:


When the Kylan Boswell news came out, this game was immediately circled on my calendar. Wisconsin's backcourt will be a tough cover. Illinois should have no problem scoring points against a weaker defense. Coming off a loss eliminates the possibility of this being a letdown spot too. I also highly doubt Illinois goes back-to-back games with horrible shooting numbers. I think Wisconsin will keep up but the Illini will ultimately pull away late.


I'll take Illinois 82-73


It's the Tomislav Ivisic game:







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