Pregame Guide and Prediction: #9 Illinois @ #5 Nebraska

We have a top 10 showdown tomorrow at 3 p.m. CST. #9 Illinois is in Lincoln to take on #5 Nebraska. The Cornhuskers beat Illinois back in December on a Jamarques Lawerence game winner. Illinois has not lost since that game. Nebraska started 20-0 but dropped their last game against Michigan despite a valiant road effort while missing two of their best players.

Back on December 13th, we knew didn't know the full picture and how meaningful that game actually was in terms of the Big Ten Title race. Illinois and Nebraska are both 9-1 in league play and are looking to gain some more momentum to open the second half of the conference season. When this game was played, no one knew how legit Nebraska was. People knew Nebraska was good, but no one knew they were a legit top 10 team. This time around, there is no surprise factor. Nebraska has real Big Ten Title and an extended March run aspirations.

Nebraska got the better of the Illini in the first matchup because Illinois could not cover any off-ball screens. Pryce Sandfort has a legendary first half. He had 26 points in the first 16 minutes of the game. Illinois had no answers for him early and fell into an early deficit. Illinois' offense was able to keep up enough to give Illinois a chance late, but Jamarques Lawerence had other plans in the final seconds. Illinois' frontcourt had one of their worst nights of the season. Coach Underwood directly called out the team and David Mirkovic specifically right after the game. The message was received and answered well. Illinois has not lost since and has an opportunity to avenge the loss with a top 5 roadkill.

Here is everything you need to know about Nebraska:

At point guard, they start Sam Hoiberg, son of head coach Fred Hoiberg. This isn't just some feel good story. Sam is a good Big Ten basketball player. He is one of the nation's best defenders and glue guys. Nebraska would not be 20-1 without him. He does all the little things well. His high motor and IQ make him a valuable part of this Nebraska team. He is averaging 9/5/4 while shooting 38% from 3. You will see him get into the paint and kick to shooters. Hoiberg also cuts to the rim exceptionally well when the off-ball defense is lazy.

Jamarques Lawerence spent his first two season at Nebraska before transferring out to Rhode Island. This offseason, he decided to return, and now he is playing the best basketball of his career. Lawerence is one of the best shooters in the conference. He is shooting 38% from 3 in his career. He can play both on and off the ball.

Pryce Sandfort is having a breakout season for Nebraska. He played his last two seasons at Iowa with Fran McCaffery and his brother, but he has really elevated his game in Lincoln. Illinois actually recruited him heavily this offseason, but his decision was a good one. He is the team's leading scorer, and he might just be the best shooter in the whole country. Sandfort is hitting at a 41% clip on a large volume. These shots are rarely set shots too. Nebraska is constantly setting pin down screens to give catch and shoot looks off the run. Illinois let Sandfort absolutely torch them in Champaign, so a more locked in defense will be needed.

At the four, the Cornhuskers start Berke Buyuktuncel. Buyuktencel is a good rebounder and score down low. He is a left who plays with a lot of energy. His shot isn't quite there, but he will shoot it if open.

Rienk Mast is one of the most fun big men to watch in the country. Back in 2023 when Illinois got Marcus Domask from the Missouri Valley Conference, Nebraska also found a gem in that conference. The Bradley transfer has exceeded all expectations. He missed all of last year due to injury, and in his last season he is looking to help give Nebraska their first tournament win. Mast has vision of a point guard but he's in a 6'10 body. Nebraska will let him facilitate from the high post. While shooting isn't his biggest strength, his ability to space the floor and be a threat from 3 makes Nebraska so hard to cover. Mast missed the Michigan game as he was dealing with flu-like symptoms. He hasn't been announced good to go yet, but he will likely play tomorrow.

Braden Frager is an exciting freshman wing who is only scraping the surface of his potential. He has been a different player since the first time Illinois saw him. I can assure you he will not play 13 minutes and be scoreless if he returns from injury. He gives Nebraska instant scoring off the bench. I would bet that he is the favorite to win Big Ten 6th Man of the Year. He has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and has been listed as a "gametime decision" for tomorrow.

Cale Jacobson and Jared Garcia round out the rotation. Both are not asked to do much. Jacobson will see an increase in usage if Frager is out, however.

As a team, Nebraska is as connected as anyone in the country. They are the story of the season as what they are doing this season is rivaling IU's football success. I wish this team was in a different conference because they are as much fun to watch as anyone in the country. Nebraska puts up many threes and makes them at a good rate. They rebound well defensively, but they are just 311th in offensive rebound rate. Second chance points should be rare for them. They don't frequently get to the line, but they also prevent other teams from doing so against them. Nebraska has the 6th highest defensive three-point attempt rate. This game really comes down to who can make more threes.

Prediction:

I haven't been this indecisive about a game all season long. I think Illinois has revenge on their mind, but this Nebraska team is so good and will have a Pinnacle Bank Arena Crowd behind them. I think Nebraska will find a way to win in a game where elite shot making is seen from both teams.

I'll take Nebraska to win 78-74.

If Illinois were to win, it's the Zvonimir Ivisic game