Pregame Guide and Prediction: #9 Illinois vs Washington

We are only a couple of days away from turning the calendar to February, and with that, this means we are approaching the midway point of Big Ten play. Through 9 games, Illinois is 8-1 and has separated themselves along with three other teams in the race for a regular season title. Next up for Illinois is 11-9 (3-6) Washington. This game is a typical trap game. Illinois is coming off an impressive win at Mackey Arena behind Keaton Wagler's 46 points, and on Sunday, the Illini are in Lincoln looking to get revenge on #5 Nebraska, who is the last team to beat them. But before that, Illinois has to take care of business against this interesting Washington team on Thursday night at the State Farm Center. These games against worse competition being placed in between two of the toughest road tests you'll see all season is never easy. Even worse, the predictive metrics suggest this Washington team is actually better than their record shows. It will be up to Brad Underwood to get his team refocused and handle the task at hand before a fun Sunday afternoon matchup awaits.

Washington entered this season as everyone's favorite dark horse in this league. On paper, they brought in Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates from USC, and they were both expected to take another leap this season. Both have dealt with their fair share of injuries, and Claude is no longer with the program. The Huskies got off to a 5-3 start, including a double-overtime win against a Southern team Illinois destroyed. They picked up a nice road win against USC but then lost to Seattle two weeks later. In their last 7 games, the Huskies are 2-5. They have been pretty competitive in most of those games against the top half of the Big Ten conference but have not been a real threat to win any of those games. They are in the top 50 in both KenPom and Torvik. Teams that are in the top 50 are usually fighting for an at-large bid on Selection Sunday, but Washington has plenty of work to make up because their results have not reflected their metrics.

Here is everything you need to know about Washington:

I'll begin with their best player. Keaton Wagler isn't the only highly touted freshman playing in this game. Hannes Steinbach is receiving NBA attention as well. He is the second-best freshman in this conference. The 6'11 freshman from Germany is a projected first-round pick and is the biggest threat on this Washington team. Steinbach is a physical presence down low and dominates on the glass. He is leading the team in scoring at 17.5 ppg and in rebounding at 11.2 rpg. Illinois will have to continue to show their toughness and relentlessness on the glass again. Steinbach has had games where he collected more than 5 offensive rebounds. Steinbach is capable of hitting threes, but that's not what his game is really made of. He is better off in the post scoring through contact than sitting beyond the three-point line.

At point guard, they have JJ Mandaquit. He is a freshman from Hawaii and is a typical point guard. He is not looking to score first. He has struggled shooting the ball, but he is a stronger playmaker who can set his teammates up in good positions. He is undersized for a guard in the Big Ten, and Illinois should be able to expose him defensively. He has kind of been thrown into action because of the Desmond Claude situation. The freshman is averaging over 5 points and 3 assists a game and should continue to develop into a solid player for years to come.

Next up is Wesley Yates III, who I mentioned earlier. Yates came over from USC last season. He had a great game against the Illini in probably the most disappointing result of the 2024-2025 season for Illinois. Yates finished with 15 points on 7/8 shooting. This season he has been dealing with injuries. He missed six of their last nine games but has played in three of their last four, including their last game, in a win against Oregon. Yates is averaging over 12 points a contest, but his efficiency has dropped significantly this season. At his best, we saw him last year be a good three-level scorer. He is also a plus defender. If fully healthy, he can explode for some big nights.

Bryson Tucker is a former McDonald's All-American who made his way to Seattle after a rough freshman season at Indiana. Tucker has great size and athleticism at 6'7 but hasn't been able to put it all together on the court. His three-point shot has not worked. Last season he shot 15%, and this season he is shooting 24% from 3. A common trend you will notice is that this team does not have many real threats from 3.

At center alongside Steinbach in the frontcourt is Franck Kepnang. As a 6th-year senior, Kepnang provides this team with some experience as overall this is a young group. He is one of the better shot blockers in the conference, averaging 2.3 blocks a contest. He is also a good rebounder. He and Steinbach combined for 15 offensive rebounds alone against Oregon, so that's definitely a strength of theirs. Kepnang is a complete non-shooter. He has only attempted one 3 in his career, so Illinois will be able to have someone in the paint all the time when he is in.

Maybe off the bench is their second-best player. Zoom Diallo is a sophomore who has made a nice stride in his game. He has started in 16 of their 20 games but came off the bench in their most recent outing. Regardless, Diallo will play many minutes. Diallo leads the team in assists and is pretty good at getting to the rim. Shooting has improved since last season, as now he is capable at 32% this season compared to just 18% last year.

The Huskies also have the 2025 Southern Conference Player of the Year on the roster. Quimari Peterson is a 6'1 guard trying to make the most of his last season in college. At ETSU last year, Peterson was a great shooter on a high volume. This year, he is only hitting at a 33% clip, but he has shown he is very capable of hitting some on any given night. His game is centered on the perimeter, and he is their highest volume shooter.

Peterson isn't the only former conference player of the year on the roster. Finally, after not playing a minute all season until their last 4 games, is Jacob Ognacevic, former 2-time A-Sun Player of the Year. He was supposed to be a piece for Danny Sprinkle, but he was sidelined with injury until the last couple of weeks. In just 4 games this season, he is 7-12 from three and has not done much of anything else. Maybe the 5th-year senior will continue to find his role as he was a big addition this offseason.

Here are my keys to an Illini victory:

Illinois can't look ahead to Sunday. We have seen this team in this spot before and they have passed. I expect Illinois to be focused. They have had 4 days to prepare for this one, so a slow start due to lack of focus is not acceptable.

Keep Washington off the offensive glass. Illinois is dominant on the offensive glass, but Washington's frontcourt is pretty solid at it too. The Illini big men have to match Washington's physicality on the glass and in the post.

Keep doing what they have been doing on offense. If Illinois continues to space the floor and hit threes, Washington simply has no chance of winning. Let Keaton work in ball screen actions if Washington is in man and shooters be ready to shoot.

Prediction: I think Illinois starts a little slow, kind of like what we saw in the Maryland and Minnesota games. I think Illinois' offensive firepower will be too much for Washington to keep up with. I don't think this Illinois group will let this become a trap game spot where the game is in real danger late.

I'll take Illinois to win 85-72

It's the Andrej Stojakovic game