Pregame Guide & Prediction: Illinois @ Michigan State

Illinois and Michigan State fans have National Championship aspirations starting next month once basketball returns, but in the meantime, these two battle to get off the mat in the Big Ten. The winner can become delusional and talk themselves into a path for a bowl bid, while the loser will be ready to go all-in on hoops.

Just a couple of months ago, Illinois fans would have looked at this trip to East Lansing as an opportunity to move to 5-1 and build momentum heading into the back half of the season. Now, just five games into the year, the Illini’s bowl hopes are hanging by a thread. If Illinois wants to keep its postseason hopes alive, it needs to head into East Lansing and come away with a win.

Michigan State could be what the doctored ordered. They might be the worst team in the conference, but this is what everyone said about Purdue last week, and they dominated Illinois in Champaign.

Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite and that is really just reflective on how bad Michigan State has looked. The Spartans are 2-3. Their lone wins were over MAC opponents in pretty competitive ball games. They have since lost to Notre Dame in a respectable effort, but they were destroyed by Nebraska and Wisconsin.

Both Illinois and Michigan State will be looking for their first Power Four win of the season because time is running out to save each of their poor starts.

This matchup is intriguing from a personnel standpoint alone. Former Michigan State quarterback Katin Houser returns to East Lansing, although I doubt he will face much hostility from Spartan fans given the difficult situation he was in during his time there. Still, the reunion has flown somewhat under the radar. The larger storyline has been about the two teams fighting to avoid the bottom of the conference standings.

On the other side of the ball, former Illini Eli Coenen will be starting along the Spartans’ defensive line. Coenen was one of several defensive line departures that left Illinois fans concerned about the depth and strength of the Illini’s front six heading into the season. Now, he will have a chance to line up against his former team.

Michigan State is coached by former Northwestern coach Pat Fiotzgerald. He is in year one in what looks like a true rebuild. Michigan State lacks talent across the board, so anything that happens this year is not a great tell on how the Fitzgerald era at MSU will unfold.

At quarterback for Michigan state is Naperville native Alessio Milivojevic. He used to take snaps from T.J. McMillan back in high school. Milojevic is in his 3rd year in the program. He was originally committed to Ball State but picked up a late offer from Michigan State and flipped. After redshirting his first season on campus, he became the starter late last season over Aidan Chiles.

Milivojevic is not one of the most talented quarterbacks, but he possesses good game management abilities. The main issue is the talent around him is subpar at best.

Michigan State running back Cam Edwards was the team's best offensive player, but he suffered a season ending injury. The run game has not been good and the offense as a whole has kind of been a disaster to say the least.

It will be interesting to see the MSU offense and the Illini defense go to work in a "stoppable force vs movable object" clash. Can Illinois bring any pressure on the quarterback? Can Illinois create a turnover? Or will see Michigan State dice up Illinois with long possessions that are full of backbreaking plays? I can't wait to see what this defense does against the worst offense in the conference.

Michigan State's defense is much better Big Ten unit compared to their offensive counterpart. Jordan Hall is one of the best players in the conference, but he is currently listed as questionable. He is a difference maker for this defense, so the Spartans would miss him.

Prediction:

My head is telling me Illinois' offense should bounce back after last week's awful performance against Purdue, and the Michigan State offense will not score more than 17 points. My heart is telling me Michigan State will find a way to win a one score game. So how do I settle this? I was just reading a bunch of Michigan State fans' thoughts, and they were pretty adamant on how they aren't scoring more than one touchdown, so I'll take their word on it. For that reason, give me the Illini to win on the road.

Illinois wins 20-16, moves to 3-3 (1-2)